Based on an average of the last four polls, and my prediction about who will retain their electorate seats, here's what the MMP seat calculator shows:
I've kept United Future's Peter Dunne in as I believe the boundary changes in Ōhariu will give him an advantage. However, on current polling David Seymour isn't likely to win Epsom for the Act party, and the Conservatives aren't going to get over the 5% threshold.
Here's the current polling corrected for a slight bias:
Clearly New Zealand First will get to decide who the next government is. Let's hope Winston Peters makes the right choice and tells John Key NO!
I've kept United Future's Peter Dunne in as I believe the boundary changes in Ōhariu will give him an advantage. However, on current polling David Seymour isn't likely to win Epsom for the Act party, and the Conservatives aren't going to get over the 5% threshold.
Here's the current polling corrected for a slight bias:
