COVID-19 Round 2

As the world nears a quarter of a million reported COVID-19 related deaths, many countries are prematurely lifting restrictions that were put in place to halt the spread of the deadly disease.

In particular states where bean counters are in charge, the response has been entirely deficient, meaning that COVID-19 continues to spread largely unabated.

Normally you would expect this to cause a continuation of lockdown measures. However economic incentives appear to have overridden many level headed political leaders.

Those calling for lockdowns to be entirely lifted have barely given any pause to consider the ramifications of their demands. For them, the financial incentive trumps any concerns for people’s safety, particularly the working class who're on the front lines of the COVID-19 response.

Unfortunately class struggle, which has seen millions of lives needlessly lost, is nothing new; it’s just that the stakes are a lot higher now. The destructive mindset that believes in sacrificing people for profit has nearly always existed. It’s just that COVID-19 has made it far more apparent for everyone to examine.


Today, ABC News reported:

As Lockdowns Ease, Some Countries Report New Infection Peaks 

Health experts warn that a second wave of infections could hit unless testing is expanded dramatically once the lockdowns are relaxed. But pressure to reopen keeps building after the weeks-long shutdown of businesses worldwide plunged the global economy into its deepest slump since the 1930s and wiped out millions of jobs.

Obviously testing should be expanded prior to lockdowns being relaxed.

In Britain, Prime Minister Boris Johnson is under pressure to reveal how the country will lift its lockdown. The restrictions are due to last through Thursday, but with hundreds of deaths still being reported daily — twice as many recently as Italy or Spain — it's unclear how the country can safely loosen the restrictions.

Clearly the UK cannot presently lift restrictions safely. The problem for countries that haven’t managed the COVID-19 outbreak properly is not only internal pressure from the business sector, it’s that countries safely lifting restrictions will be better placed to compete and take advantage of any global economy that manages to grow from the ashes.

Combine that dynamic with peer pressure from certain sectors of populations demanding an end to lockdowns and it’s little wonder many so-called leaders cannot see past the dollar signs in their eyes.

This dynamic also places pressure on countries to underreport COVID infection rates and related deaths, which in turn could postpone indefinitely the global economic recovery.

All the numbers are considered to be undercounts, due to testing issues, the problems of counting deaths in a pandemic and deliberate concealment by some governments.

Because of this documented dishonesty the world may never fully return to pre-COVID levels of economic activity. But I guess that’s the price we all pay for our over-reliance on capitalism.

National's negative campaigning

Anybody who looked into the Dirty Politics saga knows all too well that honesty is often in short supply within the National Party. You would think that after the exposure the John Key government received over their untruthful attack politics, the National Party would learn from its "mistakes" and leave such underhanded campaigns in the past where they belong. However that unfortunately doesn’t appear to be the case.

Simon Bridges - Current Leader of the National Party

The National Party, now under the feckless leadership of Simon Bridges, is using the same old dirty political tactics, along with assistance from a largely biased mainstream media, to manipulate voters into believing that the current Government isn’t doing its job properly.

National aren't providing any actual evidence though. Instead they're undertaking an entirely dishonest and unconstructive campaign in the lead up to the 2020 election, which basically confirms that National are, as their propagandists like to phrase it, haters and wreckers!

Here’s a recent negative and untruthful tweet authorised by Simon Bridges:

Here's how Labour's 'Year of Delivery' went. Astounding. pic.twitter.com/Tp3oCb62W4

— NZ National Party (@NZNationalParty) January 13, 2020

Astounding disinformation indeed. So let’s address these false allegations.

1. Strong Economy

New Zealand’s economic growth is stronger than expected and better than most other major economies around the world. Even on a per person basis, New Zealand is doing better now than National’s last year in Government.

2. Reduced Child Poverty

In order to help achieve a significant and sustained reduction in child poverty, the Labour led Government passed the Child Poverty Reduction Act in 2018. Despite this legislation there hasn’t been a discernible reduction in the child poverty rate yet. In fact the latest statistics show that before housing costs are deducted, the child poverty rate has increased by around 1 per cent. 

However the most recent statistics account for only 9 months of the current administrations governance. For National to be arguing that 9 months is a long enough period of time to significantly reduce child poverty is dishonest! In the absence of available data, they’re simply trying to convince voters that they care more about impoverished children than Labour does, which is clearly a false narrative.

For National to be criticising the Government over Child Poverty, after 9 years of their neglect and significant cuts to social services, is simply ridiculous!

3. Light Rail

We all know that the National Party absolutely failed to do anything about Auckland’s congestion woes. That hasn’t stopped them attacking the Government over Auckland’s light rail though, which is still in the development stage. Cabinet is due to consider the two different proposals in February this year. Clearly the Labour Party never promised to build Auckland's light rail in 2019.

4. 1800 More Police

Once again the promise was to provide 1800 more Police within three years, not the year of delivery. Despite this, in September 2019, the Government announced that 1685 new Police constables had already been deployed and a further 220 aspiring Police officers were also training. That means the Government will exceed the Labour Party’s election promise.

5. Free Doctor Visits

This is another false claim by the National Party. 

The Labour led Government made GP visits free for under 14-year-olds in 2018. Also, the Government ensured that an adult with a Community Services Card won’t pay more than $19 to see the GP and young people aged 14 to 17 years, who have a parent or caregiver with a CSC, will be charged no more than $13.

6. More ECE Services

In the Labour led Government’s first Budget they increased funding for 100% qualified ECE centres by $276 million over four years. The promise was to boost ECE quality and the Government is in fact delivering on that promise.

7. One Billion Trees

Labour never promised to plant a billion trees in 2019. This is just more dishonest politicking from the National Party. The One Billion Trees Programme developed by the current Government has made significant progress and is on track to planting a billion trees by 2028.

8. Capital Gains Tax

The Government has failed to implement a Capital Gains Tax, likely because NZ First MPs are overly invested in property. The issue here is that Labour didn't campaign in 2017 on implementing a CGT. What they said is they would set up a Tax Working Group and then make a decision afterwards.

But why the National Party, who won’t implement a CGT either, is attacking the Government over this is nonsensical. The National Party clearly has no plan, or intention, of implementing policy that would make housing more affordable in New Zealand.

9. Kiwibuild

Labour’s plan was to build 100,000 high quality, affordable homes over 10 years. They now plan on building as many houses as they can, saying the initial figure was too ambitious. 

By October 2019, 726 houses had been built under the Kiwibuild scheme. However the Labour led Government has built 2837 houses since June 2018 when you include their community and state housing builds. Another 3563 Government housing programme houses (not including market supplied houses) are currently under construction. 

Contrast that with National’s plan to scrap Kiwibuild and replace it with nothing. In fact the previous right wing Government sold thousands of state houses to their developer mates at below market rates, which directly led to a prolonged housing crisis. There is no question that such corruption increased the number of homeless people in New Zealand.

We might not be seeing the amount of progress we want, but at least it’s progress.

The alternative to the Labour led Government's incrementalism on major things like Child Poverty and the Housing Crisis is a continuation of John Key's self-serving ideology and negativity from the National Party, which is obviously disappointing from a public and political perspective.

National aren't proposing any actual policy changes that are anywhere near researched or robust enough to even consider voting for. Instead they seem to be entrenched on the sidelines busily throwing stones, that with the truth getting in the way, are landing well clear of the mark.

National fails miserably on housing

I don’t know about you, but I’m not very happy with all the homeless people wandering the streets and sleeping rough in the cold, some of whom are dying on park benches. But instead of blaming the victims, I think we need to look at the root cause of homelessness, being the government’s abject failure to properly account for the need to increase social housing.

Yesterday, Stuff reported:

Salvation Army report calls for increased social housing building programme

A new report authored by the Army's senior policy advisor Alan Johnson states 2000-2500 social houses need to be built around the country each year for the next decade.

That figure is the minimum needed to fix a situation that has "left Kiwi families ... in unsanitary, unsafe and unhealthy living conditions", it says.

Of course the National led government isn’t coming anywhere near that figure.

Social housing is "underfunded" and will be a "massive challenge" to address, he says.

"What we are saying is people are being displaced by other people coming into Auckland.

Immigration at current levels is clearly unsustainable.

The report says the Government's social housing building programme has allocated $36 million a year for the next four years.

That spending will provide just 90 additional houses a year at most, it says.

2000-2500 is a lot of houses to build each year and would be difficult to achieve even with government support. But only building 90 houses is simply a joke! Why even bother?

Obviously National needs some sort of excuse to show they acknowledge that the housing crisis exists, because they can no longer ignore it. The problem is they simply don’t care because it's kept house prices over-inflated and added to their false economy.

Yesterday, the NZ Herald reported:

20,000 homes needed to stop relentless rise of homelessness

Johnson said an analysis of Government statistics showed an "enduring number of people living on working-age welfare benefits" and those with limited means aged 65-plus that would only see more people in need of a home.

Data obtained through the Official Information Act showed the number of people on the social housing register had almost doubled in the past decade, and 5353 were on the Ministry of Social Development list in June this year, up from 2737 in the 2006-07 financial year.

Meanwhile the number of houses in HNZ stock had declined by 4582 across the same time period - from 67,063 in the 2007-08 year, to 62,481 in March this year.

Keep in mind that the National led government brought in measures to make even getting onto the social housing register more difficult. But that's not National's only failure concerning New Zealand's housing crisis. They're also ignoring the social pressures increased migration cause.

On Saturday, Stuff reported:

Record migration sees New Zealand population record largest ever increase

Booming migration means New Zealand's population has seen the biggest increase of all time.

Figures from Statistics New Zealand on Friday showed the population grew by 97,300 in the year to June 30, to 4.69 million.

"This is the largest annual increase ever," Statistics New Zealand said.

It appears that for every ten new migrants, one person is displaced from a house in New Zealand. As well as problems with overcrowding, this has meant a huge increase in homelessness, where there are now an estimated 40,000 Kiwis with no fixed abode, which is the worst rate in the OECD.

Another driver of the housing crisis is also being ignored by the National led government. Foreign investment, with capital gains providing a large incentive for speculation, has hindered the ability of Kiwis to buy their first home because they are being priced out of the market.

Last month, Newshub reported:

Housing capital gains are soaring in New Zealand

Analysis by Newshub has revealed just how much the housing market has risen since the last election.

The median capital gain for a New Zealand home in that time is just over $65,000. But that figure gets much, much higher when zooming into certain areas.

The Labour party has proposed a number of good measures that will tackle overseas speculators and help increase the rate of home ownership in New Zealand… important because strong communities are founded on families having a vested interest in their local areas.

This is undoubtedly a far better driver for the economy than having foreign speculators investing in housing with the expectation that Kiwis will one day be able to pay overinflated prices, especially when you compare the cost of living with incomes.

It's not just new housing and affordability that is the problems though. New Zealand's existing housing stock is badly dilapidated, particularly in the rental market.

On Thursday, Radio NZ reported:

Doctors demand action on NZ's unhealthy housing

Thousands of children are being re-admitted to hospital every year because of poor living conditions, a child health specialist says.

In a 50-page paper released today, the Royal Australasian College of Physicians has called on politicians to do more to address the causes of health inequity in New Zealand.

Too many people were living in cold, mouldy and over-crowded homes and it was ruining the health of children in particular, the college said.

The National party has utterly failed to develop policy that would remedy the housing crisis. For them, the large increase in preventable diseases and homelessness are acceptable consequences of the capital gains they and their property speculator mates are enjoying. However that gravy train looks set to end.

Yesterday, the NZ Herald reported:

Focus: NZ's housing bubble officially deflating

Figures released by Westpac show New Zealand's housing market is deflating as calls grow for LVRs to be relaxed

Unfortunately most of the analysis by market insiders doesn’t account for the actual amount of foreign speculation in the property market, because the government has been careful not to release such figures. Speculators simply won’t stick around if there are no longer large capital gains to be made, because they can make more money in other investments.

The housing market cannot continue to be propped up by foreign speculators and real estate agents misrepresenting the potential of their listings. It's a false economy that can either be systematically deflated though government intervention or crash along with the neoliberal dream that free-market ideology actually works in New Zealand.

The last National led government has utterly failed us on housing. It’s time to look towards Labour and the Greens for solutions that will actually work.

Don’t waste your vote on Gareth Morgan

The Opportunities Party (TOP) might seem like a progressive organisation full of well-respected academics that have New Zealand’s best interests at heart. It might also seem that the party is centre left, with many of their policies targeted at the issues left wing voters are most concerned about.

However, the party founder Gareth Morgan’s belief in the free market and its ability to fix all social, economic and environmental problems should not be overlooked. He is after all a capitalist through and through, and has often argued for a continuance of a failed market construct based on his own experience of becoming wealthy.

Environmentalists beware. Gareth Morgan’s unwavering belief in the mighty dollar extends to our much contested water resources, with TOP’s policy stating:

Consent owners get priority to use a certain proportion of the water available for commercial use. However, they must pay the market price for any water used. If any available water isn’t taken up by consent holders it would be offered to non-consent holders at the market price. The price will be set by a tender and will ensure that water goes to the best economic use. Existing consent holders will keep their entitlement (though paying the market price for water) but in the future consents will be auctioned.

Putting the power to allocate water resources through a bidding based tender process for consents that will be kept secret because of commercial sensitivity in the hands of councillors with vested interests isn’t going to be good for the environment.

The only thing it will do is ensure that those who’re already abusing our water resources to make vast amounts of money at the environments expense will have a mechanism to keep the water theirs and the price as low as possible.

There is nothing within TOP’s policy, which often contradicts itself, that says polluting industries won’t get preferential treatment. In fact quit the opposite. TOP envisions that consents will be awarded on economic grounds alone.

Furthermore, Morgan obviously doesn’t understand how resource consents work. Usually a resource consent allows for the maximum amount of allocated water to be taken (often based on spurious scientific information), so in most cases there’s no further water available.

A lack of water flow is one of the main reasons at least 61% of monitored waterways in New Zealand are of poor or very poor quality. The consenting process invariably over-allocates and TOPs water policy proposes to make that problem worse.

It’s not just the environment that would be negatively impacted if TOP ever gained a toehold in parliament to promote their foolishness… it’s New Zealand’s ability to attract migrants to help us rebuild this once great country.

TOP won’t require migrants to have a secure job before they arrive... instead they would be allowed to come on some sort of trial basis. TOP gives no thought to the fact that having migrants openly competing with the unemployed only pushes wages lower and subsequently increases inequality.

Morgan provides no analysis for the effect of reducing criteria for immigrants wanting to work here while increasing the barriers for overseas students. It’s just one of many emotionally based policies TOP believes will gain them support because of public perception.

Unfortunately most of Gareth Morgan’s ideas on immigration are similarly loopy! Here’s TOP once again arguing that the free market way is best:

To reflect the importance of salary level, English language skills, and the ability of migrants to contribute to the economy. Ensure the market rather than the bureacrats makes the final selection from those eligible.

Despite this claim, Morgan proposes to have some sort of arbitrary decision-making process based on fewer criterions in choosing who is worthwhile. As if the immigration system wasn’t being abused enough already... TOP is basically saying; ‘come work in New Zealand for free to see if you’re good enough'. Well I guess that would be beneficial for a capitalist looking to expand his wealth on the backs of the poor. It certainly won’t be beneficial for New Zealand though.

Morgan’s home ownership tax proposal to supposedly tackle property speculation is similarly unworkable. There is no question that it will make it harder for the elderly and other non-earners to hold onto their family homes. Morgan envisions that people older than 65 will be able to just pay the tax through a mortgage to Inland Revenue, which is about the dumbest idea I’ve heard in a long time. There are numerous studies that show keeping elderly in their own homes for longer is beneficial to them and consequently the public purse.

It’s not until you understand Gareth Morgan’s true political direction that his reformist party charade starts to fail. TOP is specifically designed to split the left vote and allow National, a party whose policy Morgan truly supports, a chance at a fourth term in government.

To that effect TOP’s mainstream media supported rhetoric and duplicitous policy is based on easily digestible sound bites specifically designed to trick left wing voters. So if you truly value progressive policy, don’t waste your vote on TOP.

A monument to capitalisms failure

As the Grenfell Tower tragedy fades from international headlines, the burnt out building remains as a terrible monument to capitalisms failure.

Arconic, the company that sells the insulation panels that caused the rapid spread of the Grenfell Tower fire has blamed the failure of their product on the “inconsistency of building codes across the world.”

This is a patently absurd excuse, being that they could have ensured their product wasn’t being installed in a dangerous way, wherever in the world it was being sold.

Last Saturday, Reuters reported:

REFILE-Arconic knowingly supplied flammable panels for use in tower -emails

Six emails sent by and to an Arconic Inc sales manager raise questions about why the company supplied combustible cladding to a distributor for use at Grenfell Tower, despite publicly warning such panels were a fire risk for tall buildings.

The emails, dating from 2014 and seen by Reuters, were between Deborah French, Arconic's UK sales manager, and executives at the contractors involved in the bidding process for the refurbishment contract at Grenfell Tower in London, where 79 people died in a blaze last week.

When asked about the emails, Arconic said in a statement that it had known the panels would be used at Grenfell Tower but that it was not its role to decide what was or was not compliant with local building regulations.

The fact that Arconic knew that their product was flammable while selling it for use on high-rise buildings shows that they placed their profit margin above people’s safety. They knew how dangerous their product was but took advantage of the UK’s lack of proper building regulations to make a killing.

80 people, including a five-year-old boy, have now been confirmed dead. However we likely won’t know the exact death toll until the end of the year.

On Wednesday, the Guardian reported:

Grenfell Tower death toll may not be known until end of year – police

Scotland Yard has warned it could take until the end of the year or longer to be sure how many people died in the Grenfell Tower disaster, as police raised the number of people presumed dead to 80.

Police warned that the death toll could rise further and said there were 23 flats in the tower where they had not been able to trace anyone alive.

The detective leading the criminal investigation added it had identified 60 firms involved in the refurbishment of Grenfell Tower, up from 12 last week, and that number is expected to grow.

The briefing came amid continued claims that the real death toll is far higher than the official count, which now stands at 80 dead.

Many more would have died were it not for the actions of police, ambulance and fire service personnel who attended the disaster.

You would think that Theresa May’s government would reward emergency service’s for their hard work and heroic actions. However that’s unfortunately not the case.

Today, the Independent reported:

Public sector pay cap: Conservative MPs cheer after blocking Labour bid to raise emergency service salaries

Jeremy Corbyn cited the Grenfell Tower disaster and recent terrorist attacks while praising the emergency services and calling for more funds.

But Conservative MPs took to social media to cast doubt on the intent and timing of the amendment.

Mid-Norfolk MP George Freeman said colleagues were cheering "Labour's failed attempt to bring down a serious Government signalling new thinking".

The pawns of capitalism ensuring that the rich become richer at poor people’s expense and lives is clearly not a new way of thinking. It's a very old and outdated way of thinking that must change.

With the bastard tory government in England cutting funds to essential services while ensuring dangerous products continue to be sold and installed throughout the UK, we can expect more tragedies like the Grenfell Tower disaster to occur. Under the failure of the capitalist system, it’s really only a matter of time.

Walk away John

Yesterday, Stuff reported:

A threat from Prime Minister John Key to "walk away" from Christchurch red-zoners challenging their buyout offers has been labelled offensive and lacking compassion.

Just when you thought John Key couldn't get any lower he goes and makes a despicable and inexcusable threat to people trying to rebuild their lives after the terrible Christchurch earthquakes.

The 68-strong Quake Outcasts group this week won a judicial review of the offer to buy uninsured properties and empty sections at 50 per cent of the land valuation.

Justice Graham Panckhurst ruled on Monday the offer was unlawful and should be revised.

Earthquake Recovery Minister Gerry Brownlee immediately announced plans to appeal, but would not comment before seeking further legal advice.

Why on earth is the government appealing the decision? They are in effect simply wasting more taxpayers money fighting the people of Christchurch instead of doing the right thing.

Why is dragging this through the courts a bad thing you might ask? Consider Rio Tinto recently receiving $30 million of taxpayers dollars without there being any economic benefit known by the government, the $1.7 billion taxpayer bailout of South Canterbury Finance, the $500 million AMI bailout, the asset sale loyalty incentive that will gift at least $40 million to retail investors, National's Open Bank Resolution (OBR) which means all depositors will have their savings reduced overnight to fund a bank’s bailout, the millions of taxpayer dollars spent bailing out leaky homes victims instead of the real culprits paying as well as the millions of dollars (approximately $115 million and climbing) the government is spending to sell our power companies to their rich investor mates...then tell me these Christchurch red-zoners don't deserve a fair deal?

Key yesterday warned the Crown could simply walk away.

"One option is the Government says: ‘Thanks very much, it's been a lot of fun. If you don't want to take the offer, that's where it's at'."

Key threatening to give the Christchurch red-zoners nothing for their land, land that the government was trying to force them to sell for half its value, is a clear abuse of power. That's not the type of person we should have as Prime Minister of New Zealand. John Key should do the honourable thing and walk away from the well paid job he is failing to do properly.

"What do we do when there is an uninsured landslip later in the year because of a flood somewhere? Those land owners will say, 'But you paid out in Christchurch'," Key said.

What Key obviously fails to understand is that insurance for bare sections wasn't and still isn't available.

"It's not easy for the Government."

Outcasts members spoken to were appalled by Key's comments saying they showed a lack of compassion and that he did not understand how hard the situation was for affected residents.

Key apologised today, saying he was sorry if any offence was caused, but his comments needed to be taken in context.

Taken in the context of John Key being a complete idiot, what he said is acceptable. However he's the Prime Minister for god's sake and shouldn't have made such ludicrous statements in the first place.

Furthermore, the countries so-called leader should know how to make a proper apology, because saying if people were offended when they clearly were offended is offensive in itself. It's a Clayton's apology, which considering the circumstances is simply not good enough.

It's not easy being the government? Then resign!

National fudges suicide stats

Today, National reported:

Despite the continuing unacceptably high number of suicides, the Coroner’s latest provisional figures, for the year ending 30 June 2013, show a reduction in the number of deaths by suicide among both young people aged between 15 and 24 years and Māori. The figures also show that suicide deaths in Christchurch have decreased compared to the previous year, back to pre-earthquake levels.

That's not correct. Here's what the Coroner actually reported (PDF):

Suicides in the Christchurch region (Timaru to Kaikoura) have risen from 67 (2010/11) to 81 (2011/12). The average number of suicides per year for this region over the past four years is 74. The figure of 67 deaths last year reflected the drop in suicides post-earthquake. The phenomenon of a drop in the suicide rate after a large scale crisis event, such as a natural disaster, has been observed elsewhere.

NZ Doctor also reported:

"We experienced an immediate drop in suicide in Christchurch post-quake but last year those numbers began creeping upwards. This trend has been observed elsewhere after a large-scale natural disaster, where there is an immediate drop," Judge MacLean said.

Todd McClay obviously hasn't read the report properly, because suicides have started to increase in Christchurch again since the earthquake. More to the point, there were 70 suicides in Christchurch per year when National gained power, there were 117 suicides to June 2012. That's if we are to believe this graph from the report instead of what the Coroner has stated:

What else does the Minister get wrong?

The total number of suicides for the year was 541, which is a decrease of six from last year, and two less than the average number of suicides over the last six years.

So National is claiming that a decrease of only six suicides is some sort of success? How despicable! It's even more despicable when you consider that the provisional suicide rate between July 2008 and June 2009 was 531.

Other negative parts of the Coroners report that McClay is ignoring are:

The highest number of female (153) suicides since records began.
The highest number of suicides (75) in the 20 to 24-year-old age cohort since records began.

Despite these facts, McClay writes:

“There are signs that concerted community and health agency programmes and activities have been effective in reducing suicides in these two groups and that is encouraging.”

Effective? National has cut funding to many organizations working on the front lines to help reduce New Zealand's terrible suicide rate. National has also increased inequality and hardship, both of which are known to lead to an increase in suicide.

There are now on average 17.6 more suicides per year since National gained power. That rate is likely to keep increasing while their destructive neoliberal agenda continues to degrade people's lives.

Clayton Cosgrove vs Bill English

Another $30 million wasted

Today, the NZ Herald reported:

The Government's $30 million subsidy to keep the Tiwai Pt aluminium smelter open removes a major perceived impediment to the successful part-sale of Meridian Energy. On no other ground, however, does it come close to passing muster. A short-term political focus has trumped clear-eyed analysis and produced a largely worthless reprieve for the struggling operation. The taxpayer-funded windfall for the Rio Tinto subsidiary that runs the smelter is money which need not and should not have been spent.

I couldn't agree more with today's editorial.

For decades, this country has given successive smelter operators extremely good deals. There is now, however, no need to bow to their every demand. Meridian, which supplies Manapouri power to the smelter, could sell its electricity into the wholesale market for as much, if not more, than it can get under any conceivable deal with New Zealand Aluminium Smelters. In purely commercial terms, it would not concern the power company unduly if the smelter were shut down. It, therefore, approached the renegotiation of the electricity supply contract from a position of some strength.

Government intervention effectively undermined that. Meridian will now charge a lower price for electricity supplied to the smelter.

So, the National government has cost taxpayers $30 million as well as the potential for Meridian Energy to charge a proper commercial rate for its electricity. Surely the government could have used that money elsewhere to help create employment opportunities in other industries...I mean $30 million plus a whole lot of lost revenue for a few hundred jobs until 2017 just doesn't seem like a good deal.

Sure, the government should look to secure jobs where it can, but when there is no financial benefit or longterm security, the choice should be to allow private businesses to close. National seems to think that welfare for private companies needs to be increased while welfare for the poor needs to be reduced. Such a defunct regime can only lead to even more inequality that will assuredly degrade our society even further.

Additionally, there is the Government's $30 million, which it says is the price that had to be paid to provide "greater certainty" for the smelter workers, the Southland region and the electricity industry. In each case, it does nothing of the sort. New Zealand Aluminium Smelters will be able to terminate the contract from January 2017 provided it gives 15 months' notice. In effect, the earliest closure date for the smelter has been moved back just one year. It would have taken a longer-term deal to offer anything approaching greater job security for its workers.

In that case the government has spent $37,500 to secure each job for just one extra year, which is stupid economics and flies in the face of the rights usual free market dogma!

How many cuts have we seen to essential services because apparently there isn't enough money to go around? Then all of a sudden National finds $30 million just waiting to be given to overseas companies.

Clearly National has only undertaken this deal to give their privatisation of Meridian Energy a free run at the line. With no real economic benefit for New Zealand, the partial privatisation of our most profitable assets is looking more like a lemon everyday.

That isn't stopping the ideologically blinded National government from smoothing the way with hundreds of millions of dollars to ensure the sales go ahead, even though interest in Meridian shares couldn't be lower. It's likely to be a monumental flop the likes of which even Roger Douglas would be proud of.

UPDATE: The government hasn't negotiated a clause to protect jobs at the Tiwai Smelter at all. National has once again tried to mislead the public.

Change in incomes since 2008

Stupid welfare reforms

Today, the NZ Herald reported:

All sickness beneficiaries, and sole parents and widows with no children under 14, are now subject to the same requirement to look for fulltime work as other jobless people, although sickness may be accepted as a valid reason to postpone work temporarily.

There will also be a new medical assessment process for Invalid beneficiaries to see if they have any capacity for work. While General Practitioners will be required to provide further personal details on their clients, the new regime may also include an examination by a specialist appointed by WINZ. No figures have been provided to show the cost of implementing this aspect of the policy changes.

Other new obligations include drug-testing for jobseekers in relevant industries, which is expected to trigger benefit cuts for up to 5800 people, and a requirement for beneficiaries to clear outstanding arrest warrants.

Drug testing beneficiaries for relevant industries? These people aren't working in those industries yet FFS! Surely the drug test should occur "for relevant industries" when they apply for or get the job? Why are we subsidizing these industries to check if their applicants are suitable or not?

Cutting a person's benefit if they fail a taxpayer funded drug test is a foolish policy that will do nothing to reduce the amount of drug addiction in New Zealand. In fact it is likely to make it even worse. Without an income some people will be forced into dealing drugs or selling their bodies...is that what the right wing want?

About 8000 beneficiaries have arrest warrants outstanding for issues such as unpaid fines. Unless they clear them within 38 days, their benefits will be halved if they have children, or stopped completely if they don't, in what is likely to be the biggest single purge of the benefit rolls since the system was created.

Except a beneficiary who has fines usually pays them off at around $15 dollars per week. They have no choice in the matter, as WINZ automatically reduces their benefits until their fines are paid. If a person has an arrest warrant for fines, be assured that WINZ is already reducing that person’s benefit.

Most beneficiaries simply don't have the means to pay their fines within 38 days. Not having a WOF and registration costs $400, meaning this is clearly being used as an excuse to kick people who are already struggling off welfare. Such archaic and stupid policy will cause more beneficiaries to use loan sharks in an attempt to not lose their only incomes. In most cases these people don't have legal cars because they simply cannot afford them in the first place. Perhaps the right wing expects them to use a horse and cart instead?

Such repressive policy will undoubtedly create even more inequality in New Zealand... but I guess that's been National's agenda all along.

Navajo coal

Another ambulance at the bottom of the cliff

Today, the NZ Herald reported:

The Government's new national suicide prevention plan, announced today, contains a raft of new initiatives, including support for small communities which lose major industries and more support for families of suicide victims.

It aims to reduce the national average of 500 suicides each year, including about 100 youth suicides.

What a load of rubbish! The average number of suicides for five years to 2012 was 543. In 2008, 510 people committed suicide, which increased to 547 in 2012. The suicide rate hasn't been 500 for a very long time and certainly not since John Key became Prime Minster.

People should question such generalized figures when the actual amount of suicides per year is much much higher. The fact that information relating to the current suicide rate hasn't been released indicates that it has reached epidemic proportions. It's likely the suicide rate has exceeded the peak of 577 in 1998 and that recent figures haven't been released because it makes the government look bad.

Mr Key said the number of young people who took their own lives was "far too high - I mean, any number above zero is too high".

He said the issue predominantly affected boys as well as Maori and Pasifika youths.

"So it's critically important that we pour more resources in that area," he said.

"There's been some very tragic examples of copycat suicides. There's been quite big groupings in certain areas, and there are a lot of different complicating factors in this area.

It's not all that hard to understand... If people's lives are difficult, they sometimes choose to commit suicide. When more people's lives are difficult, there are more suicides committed. This is why the suicide rate is a good indication of how well a government is performing, or not performing as the case may be.

When you create high unemployment, cut funding for education, increase the cost of living, increase inequality, make services harder to attain and ensure there’s an underclass that has little hope to achieve a brighter future no matter how hard they work, there's consequences.

"So all I can say is that we care passionately about wanting to make sure that we protect youngsters. We know they're vulnerable."

If Key actually cared about young people, he wouldn't have reduced their ability to earn a proper living wage. Income for 16 to 20 year olds had already decreased before the government reintroduced youth rates, which essentially means young people will earn less and therefore not be able to purchase the basic necessities they require.

National's ageist agenda has ensured that New Zealand will continue to have the worst youth suicide rate in the world.

Hardship is the main contributor to suicide. That's why there are more suicides in rural areas than in urban communities and more suicides within financially struggling families. Under Keys incompetence, inequality has increased the fastest of all OECD countries leading to an increased amount of suicides.

So while the government is ignoring the adverse social and economic conditions they've created, they're grandstanding about an ambulance at the bottom of the cliff that will do little to fix the problem. The government also appears to be trying to keep secret the extent of the problem, which is entirely unacceptable.

The amount of suicide in New Zealand always increases under a National led government and unfortunately nothing has changed in that regard under John Keys failed administration.

Mutton or what?

Today, the NZ Herald reported:

Prime Minister John Key says the refusal by Chinese officials to clear containers of frozen meat being held at the border is simply because of confusion over documentation. 

[...]

The ministry's recent name change from Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry to Ministry of Primary Industries, which issues export certificates, had caused confusion.

However last week the Shanghai Daily reported:

A raid at the market earlier this month led to the discovery of "New Zealand mutton" stored in the warehouse. The "mutton" had no production date or list of ingredients mentioned on the package.

It appears that the meat has been mislabeled before being exported. The issue is that New Zealand was exporting meat labeled as mutton when it's not mutton, which will do untold damage to our export industry worldwide... But try telling John Key that:

He was not convinced New Zealand export meat companies would be financially affected by the delay.

"The frozen meat is remaining frozen so that's a delay in terms of its entry across the border but realistically it won't be spoilt and the chilled meat is prioritised, so I'm not convinced there's a lot of costs here."

So why is the government and their obedient media lackeys still claiming its confusion over a government department name change instead of the real reason behind millions of dollars worth of meat from New Zealand being seized?

The mutton from New Zealand simply wouldn't have been impounded in China if it had been labeled correctly and was in fact mutton. The diplomatic as well as economic fallout from this fiasco could be extensive.

Reality Check: Canada's Oil Sands

Citizen A with Keith Locke & Matthew Hooton

Stand up and fight

Yesterday's man

Today, the NZ Herald reported:

There are two reasons why the Prime Minister should not have made this comment. The first is that it's not true. The second is that if it was true, then instead of publicly and gracelessly blurting it out in this manner, as Prime Minister he should be mulling the consequences, more so as he won't be Prime Minister in 18 months.

But the fact is that it's wrong. A dying city claim is a reflection of a declining population. Wellington's is rising, not as rapidly as Auckland, but then what city in Australasia is?

Surely Key must realise that he's up shits creek without a paddle now that one of his staunchest supporters has come out and publicly lambasted him? Bob Jones isn't known for his criticism of National politicians, which makes his argument all the more compelling.

My company, as the largest private CBD office-building owner in Auckland and Wellington, provides an excellent test. For the past decade office-space demand in the capital has exceeded Auckland's. That position reversed six months ago but I've been around long enough to know these things are cyclical.

Not only was Key lying when he said Wellington was a dying city, it appears that his excuse for lying is also incorrect. Bob Jones is indicating that demand for office space in the capital city is still strong, and with Wellington's population increasing, which will result in economic growth, more businesses will obviously require office space.

The strongest economies in the Western world are capitals, be they London, Canberra or Washington. As I said, democracy equals bureaucracy, an unavoidable price we pay in lieu of dictatorships. No one is forced to live in Wellington, Timaru, Taupo or Auckland. They choose to and will still be there long after the Prime Minister has become yesterday's man, a fate awaiting all politicians.

In my opinion, Key has already become yesterday's man. His Tephlon coating was obviously not built to last.

Is Wellington a dying city?

Today, the Dominion Post reported:

Prime Minister John Key admits he should have chosen his words more carefully when he branded Wellington a "dying city."

He told Takapuna business leaders last week that the government doesn't know how to "turn it around".

This morning Mr Key attempted to clarify want he meant. "I should have said under sustained pressure, which would have been a better terminology."

The capital is "very vibrant, actually".

Talk about confusing! Either Wellington is a dying city or it's a vibrant city, it cannot be both. It appears that Keys first comment is what he actually believes, whereas the second comment that Wellington is vibrant was made to reduce any backlash for his stupidity!

If Key labels Wellington a dying city, then I would hate to know what he thinks about small town New Zealand. Many rural areas have been badly impacted by National's neoliberal agenda and have experienced an increase in unemployment and a huge loss of productive businesses.

A lack of employment opportunities has resulted in people leaving in droves to place like Auckland and Australia. In fact if Key describes Wellington as a dying city, then other areas of New Zealand should be considered dead and buried.

Of course this is an inappropriate way for a Prime Minister to describe anywhere in New Zealand, with all its innovative potential just waiting for a proactive government to develop and encourage. John Key is in fact describing the current governments failure to tap into that potential growth, even in the countries capital city.

Wellington is definitely not dying... It might be afflicted with a government that has no actual plan for sustained growth, but it's a long way away from requiring funeral arrangements.

Right wing confusion over NZ Power

Today, the NZ Herald reported:

Investors in Mighty River Power should send the champagne next week to Russel Norman, Green Party, Parliament Buildings, Wellington.

The stock looked a good buy even before he talked the Labour Party into threatening price control on electricity. It looks an even better one now.

What a confusing statement. Roughan is basically saying that the Labour and Greens policy announcement concerning NZ Power has caused the share price of Mighty River Power to drop, but is then saying that's a good thing for people buying shares because they will be cheaper. He then says it's a bad thing:

Brokers and fund managers expect the bids from institutions to be at the bottom or even below the range the Government considers fair value. Taxpayers should send the Greens' financial larrikin something else - a bill.

Brian Gaynor has estimated the likely cost to the public purse at $400 million.

Leaving aside the fact that National said they wouldn't partially privatise unless they got a fair price, where on earth has Gaynor pulled that $400 million figure out from? The actual estimated reduction to the government's books is $60 to $90 million, which is easily reimbursed to taxpayers through cheaper power prices.

Roughan then claims there is no real risk from the policy announcement:

When the stock starts trading on the New Zealand and Australian exchanges, probably on Friday, we could begin to see the "significant upside", as they say. But it might take a little longer for the price to rise, as it will when those who were too nervous to subscribe this week reassess the political risk.

The right wing hack is basically arguing that there will be no long-term adverse effect from the NZ Power announcement on the value of shares, and they will significantly increase in value making investment worthwhile.

That doesn't just contradict what most other right wing propagandist's have been claiming for week's on end, it makes their argument against NZ Power largely ineffectual. Will NZ Power cause the stock market to crash or not?

Roughan's argument, like most other deluded right wingers, is entirely based on a what if scenario, which basically amounts to making financial investment decisions on par with fortune telling.

Let's see what else Roughan's crystal ball gazing foretells:

Before the electricity market could be replaced with a state-controlled pricing regime, two things would need to happen. Labour and the Greens would need to win the next election, and if they did they would need to carry out this policy. Neither, I think, is likely.

Claiming that Labour and the Greens won't form the next government is all a bit premature... But claiming that they won't implement their policy to lower the cost of electricity if elected is down right insane! This is a policy both parties will campaign on, and the public will therefore expect it to be undertaken if Labour and the Greens win the next general election.

But what's perhaps even more delusional is why Roughan thinks National is a certain shoe-in:

John Key remains the most widely admired of any New Zealand Prime Minister I have seen. National continues to lead all polls by a margin that is remarkable five years into the life of a government.

Unless something disastrous happens, he looks certain to win again next year.

A mighty big claim 18 months out from the next general election, especially considering what the polling trend is showing. Here's the latest Roy Morgan:

Although National has substantially increased their vote, the low support for governing Coalition partners the Maori Party, ACT NZ and United Future mean a combined Labour/ Greens/ New Zealand First coalition remains a good chance of forming Government after the next New Zealand Election — due late next year.

Despite that statistical analysis showing National would lose, the ignorant propagandist believes:

Democracies, though, have an uncanny habit of getting the governments they want, and we don't seem to like coalitions at all, let alone coalitions of second and third. We have consistently punished smaller partners and let the leading party govern alone for all practical purposes.

National certainly aren't governing alone, and require the help of John Banks, Peter Dunne and/or the Maori party to pass legislation. We actually have a coalition government at the moment elected by 24% of New Zealanders.

That fact doesn't just make John Roughan look a little bit confused it makes him appear to be entirely mental! As Gary Morgan highlights, it's the declining support for National's coalition partners that could be the decider, and with things not looking good for them, John Key being reelected is not a certainty.

All Roughan's article really does is stroke the egos of those rich enough to invest in Mighty River Power, who are likely to support National anyway, while trying to blame the opposition for any possible issue the share offer faces.

Similarly, Fran O'Sullivan's article also dismisses NZ Power without justification. For instance, she completely fails to acknowledge the reason behind the policy in the first place, which is to reduce the extensive energy poverty in New Zealand so that people can heat their homes properly.

But if that ignorance of the key issue here wasn't bad enough, O'Sullivan seems to believe that Labour and the Greens somehow owe those who have caused such inequality in the first place an explanation and say in their socially conscious policy:

There certainly are genuine business concerns at the precedent the two parties have set by their announcement to set up NZ Power to constrain electricity market prices, without even discussing the proposed and complex policy with key players.

Whoever O'Sullivan's "key players" are, they certainly don't have the best interests of the public at heart if they're against such considerate and moderate policy.

NZ Power is definitely not a "precedent" by any stretch of the imagination, and similar regulators are pretty normal in many other successful democracies around the world. By all accounts such systems work well to ensure consumers are supplied with affordable electricity.

O'Sullivan, like all the other National propagandists, is ignoring that fact like the plague. It also doesn't seem to matter to them that the policy behind NZ Power was proposed by the Ministry of Economic Development in their Review of the New Zealand Electricity Market (PDF) way back in 2006.

That well researched document looked at alternative models to benefit New Zealand, with a single buyer model being the result.

If you want to know just how much bullshit the right wing has been spreading about NZ Power, I suggest you read what the actual research is showing along with the Greens discussion paper (PDF) on the matter.

Another issue the right wing is ignoring is that most of our trading partners have recently gone back into recession, meaning there will be less foreign investment to ensure the government gets a fair price. Despite this glaringly obvious problem, O'Sullivan lays all the blame for the Mighty River Power share offer potentially failing on the opposition:

There's been plenty of back-of-the envelope estimates suggesting the Government could lose out on at least $400 million and possibly a much higher amount if the MRP float bombs and the shares don't reach the predicted price band. Other estimations - including that relayed by the business lobbies - suggest $1.4 billion could be wiped off the value of private power companies and a similar amount from the taxpayer-owned companies which will go on the block.

Next week, it will be apparent to what extent the Opposition's proposed intervention has affected values.

Things like the increased productivity from having a healthier population because NZ Power will allow for people to heat their homes properly is obviously of no concern to O'Sullivan. Nor is it a problem for these elitists that New Zealand is now the second most expensive developed country in the world to live in. They only care about the profits to be made from selling our assets, which will be of no benefit to the majority of Kiwi families.

In many respects the right wing doesn't share in the values that have made this country great. They seem to regard fairness and equality as principles that don't apply when it benefits their bank accounts. That lack of sympathy or social conscience clearly displays a complete disconnect between the right wing's spin doctors and your average Kiwi family, who's cost of living has increased while wages and opportunities for work continue to decline under a National coalition government.

The degree of the current governments failure to make people's lives better will decide the next election, not the rampant and baseless ranting's from right wing hacks like Roughan and O'Sullivan who wouldn't know the truth if it bit them on the ass!