There's never been an election campaign in New Zealand with so much polling. Nearly every day we had hacks like Duncan Garner saying that the polls were putting National into a commanding lead while all other social indicators were telling a different story.
Sure! There's the feel good factor after the RWC, but this should not have accounted for the increase in popularity after 58% of people polled think National failed to react properly to the Rena disaster for instance. Illogical polling that does not gauge the mood of the public should and must be questioned, the alternative is to believe that the public is completely apathetic about and disengaged from politics.
The question is whether there's an attempt to subvert democracy by influencing the public through inaccurate polling? Despite such questions arising concerning the blitzkrieg of polling running up to the election, some within the media continue to extoll its virtues:
Tapu Misa from the NZ Herald writes:
So what if the cuppa intended to breathe life into one political corpse ended up resuscitating another? It didn't matter, because John Key, as every poll has been predicting for months, has led National back to the government benches, his star barely dimmed by the so-called teapot tapes saga.
It is true that every poll did put John Key ahead. The question is does that influence people's voting? The answer is that it most definitely does... for the simple fact that nobody likes to back a horse that they think wont win. Therefore democracy is being subverted by polling, even if it is not intentionally inaccurate.
These indications of election poll influence, the upward trend in poll incidence and coverage, and the resulting potential for interference with democratic integrity necessitate investigation into the New Zealand case. This dissertation therefore uses a case study of the 2008 New Zealand general election in an attempt to establish whether election polls cause a bandwagon effect, induce an underdog effect, or encourage strategic voting in the New Zealand situation. This in turn enables evaluation to be undertaken on whether election polls in fact interfere with democratic integrity.Such a dynamic could be a reason for 23% of eligible voters not bothering.
2011 General Election Preliminary Results
Party
| Party Votes | % Votes | Electorate Seats | List Seats | Total Seats |
National Party
|
957,769
|
47.99
|
41
|
19
|
60
|
Labour Party
|
541,499
|
27.13
|
22
|
12
|
34
|
Green Party
|
211,931
|
10.62
|
0
|
13
|
13
|
New Zealand First Party
|
135,865
|
6.81
|
0
|
8
|
8
|
Māori Party
|
26,887
|
1.35
|
3
|
0
|
3
|
ACT New Zealand
|
21,446
|
1.07
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
Mana
|
19,898
|
1.00
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
United Future
|
12,159
|
0.61
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
Conservative Party
|
55,070
|
2.76
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party
|
9,516
|
0.48
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Democrats for Social Credit
|
1,432
|
0.07
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Libertarianz
|
1,405
|
0.07
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Alliance
|
1,069
|
0.05
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
69*
|
52
|
121
| |||
