Just before the 2008 election, there was a report on 3 News about what Labour MPs would no longer be in parliament based on what the polls were showing.
So in light of that report, here's what National MPs will likely be gone from parliament based on the latest
Roy Morgan poll, which states:
Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a substantial fall in support for Prime Minister John Key’s National Party to 40.5% (down 3.5% since March 11-24, 2013). Support for Key’s Coalition partners shows the Maori Party 2% (down 0.5%), ACT NZ 0.5% (unchanged) and United Future 0.5% (down 0.5%).
Support for Labour is 35.5% (up 1%); Greens are 13.5% (up 0.5%), New Zealand First 5% (up 2%), Mana Party 0.5% (unchanged), Conservative Party of NZ 1.5% (up 0.5%) and Others 0.5% (up 0.5%).
If a National Election were held today this New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the Labour Party with minor party support would win an Election if held now.
With a slight swing in voting, these electorates would be won by Labour:
Waitakere - Paula Bennett - Ranking 15 - Majority 9
Christchurch Central - Nicky Wagner - Ranking 43 - Majority 47
Waimakariri - Kate Wilkinson - Ranking 18 - Majority 642
Auckland Central - Nikki Kaye - Ranking 34 - Majority 717.
However based on the actual 14.8% swing away from National since the last election (47.3% - 40.5% = 6.8% decline) in favour of Labour (35.5% - 27.5% = 8% increase), four more electorate seats would likely change from National to Labour:
Napier - Chris Tremain - Ranking 18 - Majority 3701
New Plymouth - Jonathan Young - Ranking 46 - Majority 4270
Hamilton West - Tim Macindoe - Ranking 51 - Majority 4418
Ōtaki - Nathan Guy - Ranking 21 - Majority 5231.
Unless National changes their rankings, these MPs would be gone from parliament:
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| List MP Aaron Gilmore ranked 55 |
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| List MP Cam Calder ranked 52 |
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| Tim Macindoe ranked 51 |
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No real great loss there then... Furthermore, these National MPs will likely be gone as well:
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| Jonathan Young - Ranking 46 |
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| List MP Chris Auchinvole ranked 44 |
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| List MP Jackie Blue ranked 47 |
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| List MP Paul Goldsmith ranked 40 |
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| Nicky Wagner ranked 43 |
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| List MP Tau Henare ranked 41 |
What on earth will Tau Henare do with himself?
