Despite the growing threat of climate change, with over 400,000 buildings at risk nationwide and property assets worth more than NZ$135 billion exposed, the current administration’s response remains a patchwork of half-measures. This failure to confront the crisis head-on, particularly in Nelson-Tasman, risks not only livelihoods but also a looming collapse in property values.
On Thursday, RNZ reported:
A report prepared for the government says 14,500 properties worth $12.9 billion could be expected to experience at least one damaging flood by 2060.
The country should expect the equivalent of last month's Tasman District floods "basically every year", according to the author, with between 300 and 400 homes a year seeing "significant damage" from water reaching at least 30cm above the floorboards.
...
An independent expert panel has recommended that homeowners whose houses are flooded or damaged by weather events should not expect buy-outs, and individuals should be responsible for knowing the risks and making their own decisions about whether to move away from high-risk areas.
The panel suggested a transition period of 20 years before people are on their own when it comes to property losses, to provide people with time to make decisions and spread any cost.
The panel did not recommend any coordinated retreat from at-risk areas and critics called the recommendations "unworkable".
The science is unequivocal. NIWA’s coastal flood maps project that 72,065 New Zealanders live in areas susceptible to so-called once-in-a-century floods, which are currently occurring on a monthly basis, with 675,500 in broader flood-prone zones also at risk. Nelson Tasman’s recent deluge, causing millions in damages, underscores its place among high-risk regions like Gisborne and Porirua. Height maps reveal low-lying areas near rivers like the Motueka are especially vulnerable to inundation, exacerbated by rising sea levels.
Unfortunately, the government’s approach to managed retreat, relocating communities from flood-prone areas, is essentially non-existent, with only lip service being provided to the idea of ensuring people's safety through relocation. The absence of a national strategy leaves local councils scrambling, with Nelson Tasman residents facing uncertainty and inadequate support.
Managed retreat is not a novel concept; it’s a necessity acknowledged globally as climate impacts intensify. In New Zealand, research suggests towns like Gisborne may need retreat within 10–15 years, with other areas in the Nelson Tasman region potentially following by 2040–2050. However, the current government, led by a coalition seemingly allergic to proactive policy, has failed to advance meaningful legislation or funding frameworks.
Climate Change Minister Simon Watts has dodged calls for clear directives, leaving communities to fend for themselves. This inertia is not just negligent, it’s a betrayal of those bearing the brunt of increasingly frequent storms.
The economic fallout of this inaction is already looming. Nelson Tasman’s property market, once buoyant, faces a grim future as flood risks deter buyers. With hundreds of thousands of buildings across the country at risk, a potential market crash is likely in vulnerable regions. In Nelson Tasman, where recent floods highlighted systemic vulnerabilities, property values are likely to plummet as insurance premiums soar and buyer confidence erodes.
The government’s refusal to prioritise managed retreat only amplifies this risk, leaving homeowners to face financial ruin without a clear path to safety.
The social cost is equally dire. Families displaced by floods in Nelson Tasman have received little more than temporary aid, with no long-term plan for relocation or adaptation. The government’s failure to engage with communities concerning managed retreat, despite recommendations from expert groups, reveals a callous disregard for those most affected. The 2023 weather events, costing up to $15 billion, should have been a wake-up call. Instead, the right-wing administration clings to short-term fixes, ignoring the need for systemic change to protect vulnerable populations.
This is not governance; it’s abdication. The National-led government’s reluctance to confront the reality of climate-driven flooding, particularly in regions like Nelson Tasman, is a policy failure of staggering proportions. Managed retreat, though complex and costly, demands national leadership, not the current patchwork of local efforts. Without swift action, the economic and social toll will only grow. The government must act now, legislate, fund, and plan for managed retreat, or condemn communities to a future of uncertainty and loss. The clock is ticking, and New Zealanders are waiting.
