Israel’s Pretext for War With Iran Isn't Achievable | The Jackal


19 Jun 2025

Israel’s Pretext for War With Iran Isn't Achievable

Benjamin Netanyahu’s pretax for war with Iran, their supposed nuclear program, is an exercise in hubris wrapped up in flimsy excuses. The Israeli PM claims his military’s recent strikes, launched 13 June 2025, were a pre-emptive blow to stop Iran from building a nuclear bomb. But this pretext for war isn't achievable by Israel.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and US intelligence, including a March 2025 statement from Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, have consistently reported Iran isn’t pushing uranium enrichment beyond 60%, well short of the 90% needed for weapons-grade material. 

So why’s Netanyahu rattling sabres over a threat that doesn’t exist? It’s a distraction, a geopolitical tantrum, and a bloody stupid way to start a war Israel and its allies are unlikely to win.

 

Yesterday, Aljazeera reported:

Iran war gives Netanyahu political breathing room in Israel

Israeli PM faced uncertain future last week amid no-confidence vote, but confrontation with Iran unites Israel’s politicians.

Two confidence votes, each fewer than seven days apart, tell much of the story of Israel’s political transformation since it launched attacks on longstanding regional nemesis Iran on Friday.

Early on Thursday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right government narrowly survived a vote that ensured its continuation after an 11th-hour deal was reached with ultra-Orthodox parties who are a key force within it. Had a deal not been found, then parliament would have been dissolved and new elections called, leaving Netanyahu vulnerable as opposition against him grew.

But then on Monday, a similar attempt to dissolve parliament failed miserably after no confidence motions brought forward by parties led by Palestinian citizens of Israel failed to attract any support from the centre and the right.

Of course, in between, Israel had launched its attacks on Iran, upending domestic Israeli politics as well as regional geopolitics.


We've heard it all before from the consummate liar, Netanyahu. For over four decades, Israel has peddled the same tired narrative: Iran is on the cusp of a nuclear bomb, and only pre-emptive strikes can save the world. From Yitzhak Rabin’s warnings in 1984 to Benjamin Netanyahu’s latest claim on 13 June 2025, where he tried to justify his unprovoked attacks, the script hasn’t changed.

Despite IAEA and U.S. intelligence reports, most recently in March 2025, confirming Iran isn’t enriching uranium beyond 60% or pursuing weaponisation, Israel persists with its fearmongering. Netanyahu’s timeline, from “3–5 years” in 1992 to “days away” in February 2025, is a broken record. This reckless war, sold on a lie, risks catastrophic escalation for a goal Israel cannot achieve.

  • 1984: Israeli Defence Minister Yitzhak Rabin warns Iran’s nuclear programme could threaten Israel, urging U.S. action (no specific timeline given).
  • 1992: Netanyahu, as a Knesset member, claims Iran is 3–5 years from a nuclear bomb.
  • 1995: In Fighting Terrorism, Netanyahu repeats Iran is 3–5 years away from nuclear capability.
  • 1996: Netanyahu tells U.S. Congress Iran’s nuclear bomb is “extremely close.”
  • 2002: Before a U.S. committee, Netanyahu links Iran and Iraq, saying Iran is advancing toward nuclear weapons.
  • 2009: In The Atlantic, Netanyahu calls Iran a “messianic cult” nearing nuclear bomb capability.
  • 2012: At the UN, Netanyahu uses a bomb diagram, claiming Iran is months from completing medium enrichment, nearing a bomb by 2013. Leaked Israeli intelligence later shows Iran wasn’t weaponizing.
  • 2015: Netanyahu tells U.S. Congress the JCPOA will let Iran build a bomb in under a year.
  • 2018: At the UN, Netanyahu alleges Iran has a “secret atomic warehouse” in Tehran, proving bomb intent.
  • 2019: Netanyahu claims Iran is close to nuclear weapons, urging IAEA action.
  • 2023: In interviews, Netanyahu warns of “horrible nuclear war” if Iran gets a bomb, claiming it’s imminent.
  • February 2025: On Newsmax, Netanyahu says Iran is “days away” from bomb-grade uranium.
  • June 2025: Post-strikes, Netanyahu claims Iran has uranium for nine bombs and could weaponize in “weeks or months.”


The crown jewel of Iran’s nuclear programme, the Fordow enrichment facility, is buried 80–90 metres into the side of a mountain near Qom. It’s a fortress, purpose-built to shrug off airstrikes. Israel’s arsenal, even with its shiny F-35s and bunker-busting munitions, lacks the firepower to penetrate Fordow’s depths.

The IAEA’s Rafael Grossi confirmed on 17 June 2025 that Fordow sustained “little or no visible damage” from Israel’s attacks. Without taking out Fordow, where Iran houses advanced centrifuges and a chunk of its 60% enriched uranium, Israel’s goal of crippling Iran’s nuclear capability is a pipe dream.

And here’s the kicker: Israel can’t do it alone. The only weapon with a shot at Fordow is the US’s GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, a 30,000-pound beast carried exclusively by B-2 stealth bombers. But even this isn’t a sure bet, Fordow’s depth and reinforced structure pose technical challenges, and a strike risks releasing toxic chemicals like hydrofluoric acid or radiological contamination. 


Coordinating such an attack with Israel would be a logistical nightmare, fraught with classified hurdles and international blowback. A US strike could be seen as an illegal attack on Iran’s sovereignty, potentially dragging America into a wider regional war, something even Trump, with his non-interventionist base, should be wary of.

Israel’s goal of destroying Fordow is a technical pipe dream. Buried 80–90 metres into the granite or basalt Qom mountainside, Fordow’s rocky overburden and reinforced concrete would likely defy even the U.S.’s GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, which penetrates up to 60–100 metres of earth but only 8–10 metres of reinforced concrete. The bomb’s vertical trajectory would struggle against Fordow’s fortified depth. Multiple strikes may also fail, and a ground offensive is unthinkable. Iran’s 600,000-strong army and 200,000 reservists, entrenched in rugged terrain, dwarf Israel’s 170,000 troops, making invasion a non-starter.

Israel’s strikes, however, have done more than miss military targets, they’ve hardened Iran’s resolve. By bombing non-military sites, including Iran’s state-run Press TV headquarters in Tehran on 13 June 2025, Israel has turned a strategic blunder into a propaganda gift for the Islamic Republic. The attack, which killed three journalists and disrupted broadcasts, was condemned by Iran’s Foreign Ministry as a “war crime” aimed at silencing reporting of Israel's unjustified attacks. 

Far from weakening Iran, these strikes have rallied its people against a foreign aggressor, framing Israel as a bully flouting international law. Social media posts from Iranians show surging national unity, and with Israel's defences like the Iron Dome failing, that unity could translate into a defeat for Israel that most of the world wouldn't lament. Recent developments in Gaza, whereby Israel forces are luring starving Palestinians with promises of food aid and then murdering them has ensured that Israel has entirely lost the propaganda war.

Starting a war on a false pretext, knowing you lack the tools to finish the job, is peak idiocy. Netanyahu’s strikes have killed Iranian scientists and damaged Natanz and Isfahan, but Fordow stands untouched, and Iran’s nuclear know-how is irreversible. This isn’t strategy; it’s posturing, gambling with lives to prop up Benjamin Netanyahu’s strongman image. Without US help, Israel’s campaign is a loud but impotent gesture. And even with Uncle Sam’s bombers, success is a long shot. The real cost? Escalation, civilian deaths, a region teetering on chaos and an Iran without a reason to negotiate or reign in their nuclear developments, all for a goal that was never achievable.

Published by the Jackal