NZ Child Suicide Crisis: Experts Muddying the Waters

Sarah Hetrick

The latest UNICEF Report Card 19 has delivered a wake up call to New Zealand’s conscience, ranking us dead last for child and youth mental health among 36 OECD and EU countries, with the highest youth suicide rate at 17.1 per 100,000 for 15 to 19-year-olds, nearly X3 the average for other high-income nations. But despite the well-researched UNICEF statistics, certain so-called “experts” are crying foul, claiming the numbers are “misleading.” Their arguments, rooted in technicalities about confirmed versus suspected suicides, not only undermine the gravity of the crisis but also distract from the government’s insidious tweaks to reporting that obscure the true scale of the tragedy.

On Friday, RNZ reported:

Misleading figures on New Zealand youth suicide rates

Two researchers from the University of Auckland, who are experts in youth mental health, say that figure is wrong.

The global charity's report on child wellbeing came out last Wednesday, with New Zealand ranking the lowest of 36 countries for mental wellbeing.

The graph attracting the most attention was the one on youth suicide rates, in which New Zealand outranked all other countries, with a rate of 17.1 per 100,000 15-to-19-year-olds.

"This is our whole world, this research, so we know what the data looks like for New Zealand," associate professor Sarah Hetrick told The Detail.

"We just knew when we saw it that it wasn't correct."

...

Associate professor Sarah Fortune, who is the director for population mental health at University of Auckland, explained the difference.

"The first one is called confirmed deaths, so that tells us that the circumstances of that person's death have been reviewed by the coroner and have been recorded as being a suicide death," she said. "Then we have suspected cases, which indicates that that situation is still open to the coroner."

The UNICEF Report Card 19 analysed trends in youth suicide using only data on confirmed suicide rates.

Hetrick and Fortune, both tied to the University of Auckland, argued that the UNICEF figures, based on confirmed suicides from 2018-2020, are outdated and inflated, pointing to more recent suspected suicide rates of 12.3 per 100,000 (2021-22) and 11.8 (2023-24). They lean on the fact that New Zealand’s coronial process distinguishes between “confirmed” and “suspected” suicides, suggesting the UNICEF data doesn’t reflect a downward trend in suspected cases.

But this is a sleight of hand. The UNICEF report uses globally comparable data to ensure fairness, drawing from confirmed suicides to align with other countries’ methodologies.

More troubling is the government’s role in this preventable tragedy. Knowing that things would likely continue to get worse, everyone but Labour voted in 2016 to make changes to suicide reporting protocols, which has restricted what qualifies as a “confirmed” suicide. The coronial process, already slow, now demands stricter evidence, delaying or outright excluding certain cases from official tallies. It’s also the reason why the latest suicide stats are showing a decline, while all the social conditions that cause suicide are continuing to worsen. This isn’t just bureaucratic red tape…it’s a deliberate move to suppress the numbers and make things look better than they actually are. By focusing on “confirmed” versus “suspected” suicides, and limiting reporting, the government creates a mirage of progress while the real crisis festers. The UNICEF report’s 17.1 rate isn’t an anomaly; it’s a snapshot of a systemic failure that’s actually worse than reported, given the new criteria reducing confirmed cases.

Sarah Fortune

The existing numbers already paint a very bleak picture. Māori and Pacific youth are disproportionately affected, with Māori suicide rates 1.7 times higher than non-Māori for males and 2.4 times for females. Poverty, racism, and a post-colonial legacy fuel this epidemic, yet Hetrick and Fortune’s focus on statistical nuances distracts from these structural drivers. The Youth2000 series, which they cite for broader well-being indicators, still shows 6.2% of youth attempting suicide, with higher rates in deprived areas. If anything, the data suggests the crisis is underreported, not overstated.

By downplaying the UNICEF report, these "experts" risk feeding a narrative that lets the government off the hook. The coalition of chaos’ austerity Budget 2025, with its 116 cuts that will disproportionately affect those already at risk, will likely worsen New Zealand’s terrible suicide rates. Instead of quibbling over numbers, we need to put pressure on the government to urgently invest in mental health services, housing stability, and poverty reduction measures. The real scandal isn’t UNICEF’s data…it’s the lives lost while people bicker about what set of statistics are correct, effectively providing cover for an administration that is only making an already atrocious situation worse.

 

Places to get help:

Lifeline (open 24/7) - 0800 543 354
Depression Helpline (open 24/7) - 0800 111 757
Healthline (open 24/7) - 0800 611 116
Samaritans (open 24/7) - 0800 726 666
Suicide Crisis Helpline (open 24/7) - 0508 828 865 (0508 TAUTOKO). This is a service for people who may be thinking about suicide, or those who are concerned about family or friends.
Youthline (open 24/7) - 0800 376 633. You can also text 234 for free between 8am and midnight, or email talk@youthline.co.nz
0800 WHATSUP children's helpline - phone 0800 9428 787 between 1pm and 10pm on weekdays and from 3pm to 10pm on weekends. Online chat is available from 7pm to 10pm every day at www.whatsup.co.nz.
Kidsline (open 24/7) - 0800 543 754. This service is for children aged 5 to 18. Those who ring between 4pm and 9pm on weekdays will speak to a Kidsline buddy. These are specially trained teenage telephone counsellors.
Your local Rural Support Trust - 0800 787 254 (0800 RURAL HELP)
Alcohol Drug Helpline (open 24/7) - 0800 787 797. You can also text 8691 for free.