The warning signs are unmistakable. While the incidence of Covid-19 decreased in 2024 compared with the previous two years, partly driven by the lack of an expected wave over the 2024-25 summer, experts caution this pattern may not continue. But rather than using this respite to strengthen our defences, the current administration has pursued policies that actively undermine public health preparedness.
Perhaps most concerning is the government's abdication of responsibility for coherent public health messaging. Where previous administrations maintained clear communication strategies, the coalition of chaos has offered a vacuum of leadership that has been filled by misinformation and conspiracy theories, conspiracy theories that are sometimes promoted by government MPs and their associates. This messaging crisis has precipitated a dangerous decline in vaccination rates, leaving vulnerable people exposed as new variants emerge.
Today, Stuff reported:
A new strain of Covid-19 is making itself known in New Zealand.
XFG, or Stratus as it is nicknamed, was classified by the World Health Organisation as a “variant under monitoring” in June, one month after first showing up in wastewater testing here.
According to wastewater analysis from PHF Science (formerly ESR), Stratus has been on the rise for the past two months. In the week ending August 3, it was the second-most detected strain of Covid, after NB.1.8.1, or Nimbus.
“I've seen in other countries that XFG has out-competed the NB.1.8.1 variant and sort of taken over,” said University of Canterbury professor and expert modeller Michael Plank.
“We haven’t seen that happen in New Zealand so far, which is maybe a little bit surprising. And it could happen, you know, in the months ahead. But at the moment, it's the NB.1.8.1 that appears to be dominating.”
The human cost of this negligence extends far beyond acute infections. Risk of long COVID remains high, yet the government has no coherent policy framework to address this growing health burden. Long COVID sufferers, already marginalised by a healthcare system struggling to understand their condition amidst chronic staff shortages, face an uncertain future with diminishing support and recognition.
However, most damaging is the government's systematic defunding of healthcare infrastructure, with the health sector underfunded by approximately NZ$1.5–1.9 billion annually. Nearly 10,000 public sector jobs have been axed as Finance Minister Nicola Willis imposes annual spending cuts as part of the government’s 6.5–7.5% cost-saving mandate, which has had a significant impact on our health sector.
Approximately 2,165 health sector roles have been eliminated, particularly in data, digital, and public health teams. Critics, including the Public Service Association, argue these cuts weaken COVID-19 preparedness and health system resilience.
The coalition's health policies, or lack thereof, demonstrate a fundamental misunderstanding of pandemic preparedness. Funding has been woefully inadequate creating or worsening conditions of severe under-staffing. In fact Budget 2024 committed more new money to funding security guards for A&E departments compared to training new medical staff. This speaks volumes about a neoliberal government who are more concerned with managing system failure rather than addressing its root causes.
Furthermore, the dysfunction within the coalition itself raises serious questions about its capacity to manage health crisis. Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters's inflammatory rhetoric and apparent sympathy for anti-vaccination sentiment, reflected in his choice of press secretary, sends dangerous mixed messages at a time when clear, science-based communication is still essential. It doesn't bode well when government minister's are consistently undermining public health measures that actually worked and whose offices often struggle with basic media relations.
The current coalition of chaos campaign against the previous Labour led government for its Covid response is also endemic of an administration with no clear plan for the future. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, flanked by his sanctimonious coalition cronies, have unleashed a venomous tirade against former Labour leaders Jacinda Ardern, Chris Hipkins, and Grant Robertson for opting out of the second, non-mandatory phase of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into New Zealand’s COVID-19 response, smugly accusing them of shirking accountability.
There was no rational reason to have a 2nd phase of the #NZ Royal Commission on #COVID_19 when the original Commission brought down a comprehensive & objective report. It seems even clearer now that phase 2 was always intended to be a witch-hunt. #nzpol https://t.co/2cW8GRA2pw pic.twitter.com/5wJjo0dJSZ
— Helen Clark (@HelenClarkNZ) August 14, 2025
Luxon, in a blatant display of political grandstanding, even falsely claimed the Labour leaders defied a summons to appear in person, a lie swiftly debunked by the inquiry chair, Grant Illingworth KC, who confirmed that no such requirement existed and that private testimony, like Ardern’s three-hour interview, was entirely sufficient.
This disingenuous attack by the Prime Minister and others, with Seymour sneering at Labour’s absence, reeks of a calculated campaign to vilify the previous administration’s world-leading response, which saved an estimated 20,000 lives. The National-led government’s relentless and expensive pursuit of political point-scoring undermines the inquiry’s purpose and makes a mockery of their claim that the second Covid inquiry wouldn't be used as a political weapon.
Can we get a better Prime Minister? One who understands plain english?https://t.co/nvNpMiNWqv
— Greg Presland (@GregPresland) August 14, 2025
The coalition government's retrospective criticism of Labour's pandemic spending, which was recently misrepresented by Treasury, reveals another profound misunderstanding of both epidemiology and economics. Those early investments in health infrastructure, wage subsidies, and public health measures prevented a catastrophic loss of life and economic collapse, economic collapse that the current government's archaic policies appear to be trying to initiate.
Despite the success of New Zealand's Covid response and recovery, the coalition has fervently criticised the previous administration while systematically dismantling the capacity within our health system, which is currently struggling to even deal with things like the current flu season, while offering no alternative strategy for future outbreaks.
The healthcare system is already under severe strain, with thousands of New Zealanders still waiting unreasonable amounts of time for treatment. When the next pandemic arrives, these same hospitals will be expected to manage surge capacity while operating with reduced staff and constrained budgets, potentially reducing the effectiveness of whatever response measures the National-led government can cobble together.
New Zealand's COVID response was once the envy of the world, built on scientific rigour, clear communication, and decisive action. Today, we face the prospect of another wave with a fragmented government that seems ideologically opposed to the very measures that once protected us. The question isn't whether we will face another COVID surge, but whether the current government will make that surge far more devastating than it needed to be.
The coalition's approach represents not just policy failure, but a fundamental abandonment of the government's duty to protect public health. As epidemiologists keep watch, New Zealanders deserve leaders who will listen to science rather than pander to conspiracy theorists, invest in healthcare rather than cut it, and prepare for the challenges ahead rather than pretend they don't exist.
