David Talbot, the poll’s director, didn’t mince words: this is the worst budget reception in nearly 30 years of tracking. For a government that campaigned on economic competence, this is a slap in the face from voters who are clearly unimpressed with Nicola Willis’ fiscal fanfare.
On Saturday, the NZ Herald reported:
The Government’s recent Budget has tested poorly with voters, according to the results of a new Talbot Mills Research poll.
Asked whether they thought the Budget delivered on May 22 will be good for New Zealand overall, bad, or would not make much of a difference, 33% said it would be bad and just 22% thought it would be good.
“We’ve been measuring New Zealanders’ reception of government budgets for nearly 30 years. This is the worst we’ve ever recorded,” said David Talbot, director of Talbot Mills Research.
“Across all three dimensions: overall, economic, and personal, it was judged by Kiwis to be net negative, and in each case the worst since our tracking began in 1996.”
Participants were also asked whether they thought the Budget would be good for the New Zealand economy, bad or would not make much of a difference.
The results showed 30% believed it would be bad for the economy and 27% thought it would be good. In terms of whether they thought the Budget would be good for them personally, bad or make not much of a difference, 34% of respondents said it would be bad and just 9% thought it would be good.
Nicola Willis called Budget 2025 “responsible,” claiming it’s steering New Zealand toward recovery. The people polled, representing a majority of New Zealanders, say otherwise. With 30% of respondents saying it’s bad for the economy and only 27% seeing it as a positive, the coalition’s big plan, centred on tax breaks for businesses and slashing public spending, is nothing more than a corporate handout dressed up as progress. The $6.6 billion “Investment Boost” for businesses, allowing a 20% immediate tax deduction on new assets, might thrill the boardrooms, but it’s left ordinary Kiwis cold.
The gutting of KiwiSaver contributions, now halved to about $260 annually, is another kick in the teeth for workers trying to save for their future. Willis’ claim that this will somehow help first-home buyers is laughable when employers are expected to offset higher contributions with lower wage increases. So much for “making New Zealanders better off.”
The coalition’s obsession with austerity and tax cuts for the wealthy reeks of trickle-down economics, a tired playbook that’s failed time and again. Meanwhile, means-testing Best Start and projecting a measly $200 million surplus by 2029 (using their cherry-picked Obegalx measure) shows a government more interested in micro-management and balancing books than addressing the cost-of-living crisis hammering households.
The poll’s damning verdict reflects a public that’s not buying the spin. With 78% of Kiwis in other Talbot Mills polls saying economic conditions are “poor” or “not so good,” it’s clear the coalition’s priorities are misaligned with what the country requires.
This budget’s failure isn’t just a policy misstep; it’s a political disaster for Christopher Luxon’s government. The coalition’s rhetoric of “strong fiscal management” is crumbling under the weight of public discontent. Talbot Mills’ data suggests a deeper malaise, voters aren’t just skeptical; they’re angry. If Luxon and Willis think they can coast to 2026 on corporate tax breaks and road cone hotlines, they’re in for a rude awakening.
The left must seize this moment. Labour, the Greens, and Te Pāti Māori need to hammer home the coalition’s disconnect, offering a vision that puts people over profits. Budget 2025’s polling debacle is a clear signal: Kiwis want a government that fights for them, not one that leaves more Kiwi families further behind.
