Stable Housing a Key to Suicide Reduction

New Zealand’s Suicide Prevention Action Plan 2025–2029, part of the Every Life Matters strategy, hasn't been implemented properly, promising much but risking little real change. While the plan boasts 21 health-led and 13 cross-agency actions, it’s riddled with faults that could doom it to repeat the failures of past strategies. 

With suicide rates in New Zealand remaining high, 617 suspected suicides in 2024, at 11.2 per 100,000, the National-led government’s austerity-driven approach, coupled with a watered-down suicide prevention plan, threatens to exacerbate the crisis rather than curb it.

First, the plan’s funding is a sticking plaster on a gaping wound. The $20 million annual baseline, plus an extra $16 million from 2025/26, sounds substantial, but it’s a drop in the bucket for a mental health system already buckling under cuts to frontline staff and gutted community services. The dissolution of the standalone Suicide Prevention Office, now a mere function within the Ministry of Health, signals a lack of seriousness about suicide prevention. How can we expect coordinated, impactful action when the government’s gutting the very structures tasked with reducing suicides?

Last year, RNZ reported:

Ministry of Health apologises for confusion over Suicide Prevention Office's future

The Ministry of Health said it did not sufficiently brief the Minister of Mental Health on their restructuring plans and is committed to working on suicide prevention.

RNZ understands the ministry is proposing to cut 134 jobs to meet the government's demands to reduce costs.

The Public Servants Association (PSA) released a press release on Thursday that claimed this also included shutting the Suicide Prevention Office.

Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey has since stepped in and told the Director-General of Health he expected the office to stay open.

 

But what is perhaps worse than this undermining, the government's replacement plan’s health-centric focus sidesteps the social determinants fuelling suicide, like poverty, unemployment, and housing instability. A 2022 University of Auckland study, backed up by a recently released Otago University study, has found stable housing significantly reduces youth offending, showing how secure homes foster resilience in young people. It’s no leap to see how stable housing could also lower youth suicide rates by providing safety and reducing stress.

Yesterday, RNZ reported:

Youth offending drops with safe, stable housing - study

An Otago University study has found a link between safe, stable housing and a reduction in youth offending rates.

The study looked at the relationship between different types of housing assistance, including emergency housing, public housing, and the accommodation supplement.

Lead author Chang Yu said researchers found clear links between housing deprivation and alleged youth offending.

"We found offending decreased significantly among young people living in public housing or receiving the accommodation supplement, compared with the general population.

The National-led government's austerity measures, destroying emergency housing, cancelling state home builds, slashing public services and tightening welfare, have deepened housing insecurity and economic hardship, particularly for young people and Māori, who face suicide rates 1.8 times higher than non-Māori. These policies aren’t just indifferent; they’re actively worsening the social conditions that drive despair.

Yesterday, Stuff reported:

 

‘Heartbreaking’: Pensioners, children sleeping rough in Christchurch’s red zone

Associate Housing Minister Tama Potaka said the large scale use of emergency housing was one of “the biggest public policy failures in New Zealand history”.

“Since National came into office, households in emergency housing have dropped from 3,342 to 516– that’s a drop of 84.5%.

“The vast majority are now into better, safer, proper homes.”

He said the Government was focused on making it easier to build proper housing and ensuring Government investment was “creating the right houses in the right places for those in genuine need“.

But Fire didn’t see it that way.

“You empty all the motels and there’s a lot of children still sleeping in cars,” she said. “That really gets to me."

The National-led government’s failure to track where former emergency housing residents end up is a glaring oversight that compounds the Suicide Prevention Action Plan’s weaknesses. The Ministry of Social Development lacks data on these households by design, because this type of data would make the government's emergency housing reduction plan look bad.

Many of the people affected by the coalitions austerity, including young children and the elderly, are slipping into rough sleeping, overcrowding, or other precarious situations. Clearly secure homes could also reduce suicide by alleviating stress and fostering resilience. Yet, National’s austerity-driven cuts to frontline services and community support, alongside the gutting of emergency housing, risk driving more vulnerable Kiwis, especially youth and Māori, into despair, undermining any hope of meaningful progress.

The Suicide Prevention Action Plan’s nod to Māori-led actions and community funds is welcome, but it feels tokenistic when broader government moves, like gutting the Suicide Prevention Office, cuts to emergency housing and reviewing Treaty-based provisions, undermine cultural and overall responsiveness. High-risk groups like the Rainbow community and rural New Zealanders also risk being short-changed when resources are spread too thin. And let’s not ignore the measly focus on postvention, support for those bereaved by suicide, who are at heightened risk themselves.

Adding insult to injury is the government's funding of unproven initiatives like Gumboot Friday, and changes to suicide reporting protocols, which have tightened what qualifies as a “confirmed” suicide, potentially masking the true scale of the current crisis in New Zealand. This sleight of hand lets the government downplay the numbers while avoiding accountability for the consequences of their policy decisions. Without robust short-term indicators or a reinstated Suicide Prevention Office, evaluating the plan’s impact will be like navigating around icebergs in the dark.

In short, this plan is a half-measure, dressed up with milestones but starved of ambition and resources. National’s austerity is exacerbating the social conditions, unstable housing, economic strain, cultural disconnection, that drive people to suicide, particularly among youth and Māori. If we want to save lives, we need bold investment, a dedicated and properly staffed prevention office, and policies that tackle the root causes of despair, not just its symptoms. Anything less clearly shows that the government simply does not care.

Places to get help:

• Lifeline (open 24/7) - 0800 543 354
• Depression Helpline (open 24/7) - 0800 111 757
• Healthline (open 24/7) - 0800 611 116
• Samaritans (open 24/7) - 0800 726 666
• Suicide Crisis Helpline (open 24/7) - 0508 828 865 (0508 TAUTOKO). This is a service for people who may be thinking about suicide, or those who are concerned about family or friends.
• Youthline (open 24/7) - 0800 376 633. You can also text 234 for free between 8am and midnight, or email talk@youthline.co.nz
• 0800 WHATSUP children's helpline - phone 0800 9428 787 between 1pm and 10pm on weekdays and from 3pm to 10pm on weekends. Online chat is available from 7pm to 10pm every day at www.whatsup.co.nz.
• Kidsline (open 24/7) - 0800 543 754. This service is for children aged 5 to 18. Those who ring between 4pm and 9pm on weekdays will speak to a Kidsline buddy. These are specially trained teenage telephone counsellors.
• Your local Rural Support Trust - 0800 787 254 (0800 RURAL HELP)
• Alcohol Drug Helpline (open 24/7) - 0800 787 797. You can also text 8691 for free.

David Seymour Wants More People to Die From Cancer

It’s a grim day for Aotearoa when a politician like David Seymour, leader of the ACT Party, can stand up and effectively cheer for New Zealanders smoking themselves into an early grave. As I'm sure you're aware, the National-led coalition government gutted our world-leading smokefree laws when they first came to power in October 2023, and the consequences are already piling up. This isn’t just a policy misstep, it’s a betrayal of public health, driven by dodgy deals and corporate cash, with Seymour and other corrupt politicians pulling the governments strings for their tobacco industry mates.

In 2022, New Zealand passed pioneering legislation under Labour to create a smokefree generation, slashing tobacco retailers from 6,000 to 600, reducing nicotine levels in cigarettes, and banning sales to anyone born after 2008. The evidence was clear: these measures were projected to save 5,000 lives annually and $1.3 billion in health costs over 20 years, while slashing smoking rates, particularly for Māori from 19.9% to under 5% by 2025.

But the National-led government, with Seymour and NZ First’s Winston Peters pulling the strings, repealed these laws in February 2024 to fund tax cuts for the wealthy. Finance Minister Nicola Willis admitted the repeal would rake in $1 billion in tobacco tax revenue, blood money paid for with the lives of more New Zealanders dying from tobacco related diseases like cancer.

And now we have the prized fool himself, David Seymour, openly stating that it would be good if more New Zealanders died from smoking related diseases.

Today, Newsroom reported:

 

Seymour’s ‘light up’ message alarms tobacco researchers

‘Lots of excise tax, no pension – I mean, you’re a hero,’ Act leader says of smokers – a line health experts say is no laughing matter

Deputy Prime Minister David Seymour’s comments to a London audience calling smokers “fiscal heroes” – and declaring people should “light up” to save their government’s balance sheet – are reprehensible and make light of addiction, tobacco researchers say.

Seymour largely stands by his remarks, arguing smokers are a net economic positive through tobacco tax and reduced superannuation from early deaths – but has conceded he was wrong to describe as “quite evil” the Labour government’s plan to create a smokefree generation.

...

Seymour spoke about the decision following a speech to the Adam Smith Institute, a neoliberal think tank based in London, during a visit to the UK this month.

Asked about the smokefree generation concept, which has been taken up by the British government, Seymour said the New Zealand policy had been “quite evil, in a way” and described smokers as “fiscal heroes”.

“If you want to save your country’s balance sheet, light up, because … lots of excise tax, no pension – I mean, you’re a hero,” he said to laughter from the audience.

...

“As far as I can tell, that condition is well and truly satisfied: I mean, the Government gets $2 billion of tax revenue from about, what is it now, 8 percent of the population?” (The Customs Service collected $1.5b in tobacco excise and equivalent duties in 2023/24, while that year’s NZ Health Survey reported a daily smoking rate of 6.9 percent.)

Seymour said it was “just a sad fact” that smokers were also likely to die younger, reducing the amount of superannuation they collected, while he was unconvinced their healthcare costs would be markedly higher than those who died of other illnesses.

“If anything, smokers are probably saving other citizens money.”

When the coalition of chaos made their stupid decision to increase the number of New Zealanders who die from tobacco related diseases like cancer, many Health experts sounded the alarm. Modelling from the University of Otago estimates the repeal could lead to thousands of additional smoking-related deaths, with Māori and Pasifika communities hit hardest, exacerbating existing health inequities. 

Māori life expectancy is already 7.5 years shorter than Pākehā, and smoking is a leading cause of this gap. The coalition’s decision to scrap the smokefree laws was a “major win for the tobacco industry,” as Health Coalition Aotearoa’s Boyd Swinburn put it, boosting Big Tobacco’s profits at the expense of Kiwi lives.

And who’s cashing in? Tobacco giants like Philip Morris, the sole supplier of heated tobacco products (HTPs) in New Zealand, are laughing all the way to the bank. Documents reveal Philip Morris lobbied hard for tax cuts on HTPs, a move Associate Health Minister Casey Costello delivered in July 2024, slashing excise tax by 50% despite research showing that HTPs are just as harmful as cigarettes.


Last year, Newsroom reported:

Minister left $46b benefit of smokefree reforms out of Cabinet paper

In a section outlining the “financial implications” of repealing the reforms, Costello’s Cabinet paper only discussed the costs of reimbursing retailers who had applied for special permits under the old regime and the potential for $1.5 billion in additional revenue from tobacco excise over four years. However, the December 6 briefing contained more information about the economic benefits of the scheme in its own “financial implications” section.

Early estimates had suggested New Zealand might save $5.25b in health costs and $5.88b in increased productivity over the lifetime of the population alive in 2020, officials told Costello.

More recent independent analysis, published in November 2023, found a $17b loss to government out to 2050 from reduced excise revenue and increased superannuation costs from people living longer would be more than offset by a $46b economic benefit over the same period, the briefing said. “The new estimates find the smoked tobacco measures are likely to result in large economic benefits for the total population.”

Verrall said it was up to ministers on what they wanted to include in Cabinet papers. However, she said, Costello appeared to have withheld information from Cabinet that was unfavourable to her position.

The stench of tobacco money lingers over this corrupt coalition. RNZ uncovered that Philip Morris’s external relations team includes former NZ First staffers, raising questions about cosy relationships and dirty deals. Public health researchers have demanded ministers like Costello and Seymour disclose any tobacco industry links, noting their rhetoric mirrors Big Tobacco’s talking points.

Costello’s claim of “independent” advice to justify her policies was debunked when she couldn’t explain the source of a document pushing tobacco tax cuts, suspiciously aligned with tobacco industry goals. Imagine what would happen if a left wing politician fabricated research to prop up a predetermined anti-health agenda. The mainstream media would be apoplectic until they were forced to resign.

ACT and NZ First, the tail wagging the National dog, have shown their true colours. Seymour’s libertarian posturing and NZ First’s populist rhetoric mask a willingness to sacrifice public health for corporate interests. National, desperate to attain power, caved to their demands despite earlier supporting some smokefree measures. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s weak excuse, that the laws would fuel black markets, has been contradicted by evidence showing the illicit tobacco trade was already declining.

David Seymour’s claim that smoking is a “freedom of choice” is a grotesque insult when 5,000 Kiwis die each year from tobacco related diseases, trapped by addiction, not choice. This National-led coalition, with ACT and NZ First yanking the leash, has sold out New Zealand's health for tobacco profits and tax cuts that fatten the wallets of the wealthy while robbing tamariki of a smokefree future. The blood of future victims will stain this government’s dubious legacy forever. New Zealanders must demand transparency, and hold these corrupt politicians accountable before Big Tobacco’s shadow claims even more lives.

Israel’s Pretext for War With Iran Isn't Achievable

Benjamin Netanyahu’s pretax for war with Iran, their supposed nuclear program, is an exercise in hubris wrapped up in flimsy excuses. The Israeli PM claims his military’s recent strikes, launched 13 June 2025, were a pre-emptive blow to stop Iran from building a nuclear bomb. But this pretext for war isn't achievable by Israel.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and US intelligence, including a March 2025 statement from Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, have consistently reported Iran isn’t pushing uranium enrichment beyond 60%, well short of the 90% needed for weapons-grade material. 

So why’s Netanyahu rattling sabres over a threat that doesn’t exist? It’s a distraction, a geopolitical tantrum, and a bloody stupid way to start a war Israel and its allies are unlikely to win.

 

Yesterday, Aljazeera reported:

Iran war gives Netanyahu political breathing room in Israel

Israeli PM faced uncertain future last week amid no-confidence vote, but confrontation with Iran unites Israel’s politicians.

Two confidence votes, each fewer than seven days apart, tell much of the story of Israel’s political transformation since it launched attacks on longstanding regional nemesis Iran on Friday.

Early on Thursday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right government narrowly survived a vote that ensured its continuation after an 11th-hour deal was reached with ultra-Orthodox parties who are a key force within it. Had a deal not been found, then parliament would have been dissolved and new elections called, leaving Netanyahu vulnerable as opposition against him grew.

But then on Monday, a similar attempt to dissolve parliament failed miserably after no confidence motions brought forward by parties led by Palestinian citizens of Israel failed to attract any support from the centre and the right.

Of course, in between, Israel had launched its attacks on Iran, upending domestic Israeli politics as well as regional geopolitics.

We've heard it all before from the consummate liar, Netanyahu. For over four decades, Israel has peddled the same tired narrative: Iran is on the cusp of a nuclear bomb, and only pre-emptive strikes can save the world. From Yitzhak Rabin’s warnings in 1984 to Benjamin Netanyahu’s latest claim on 13 June 2025, where he tried to justify his unprovoked attacks, the script hasn’t changed.

Despite IAEA and U.S. intelligence reports, most recently in March 2025, confirming Iran isn’t enriching uranium beyond 60% or pursuing weaponisation, Israel persists with its fearmongering. Netanyahu’s timeline, from “3–5 years” in 1992 to “days away” in February 2025, is a broken record. This reckless war, sold on a lie, risks catastrophic escalation for a goal Israel cannot achieve.

• 1984: Israeli Defence Minister Yitzhak Rabin warns Iran’s nuclear programme could threaten Israel, urging U.S. action (no specific timeline given).
• 1992: Netanyahu, as a Knesset member, claims Iran is 3–5 years from a nuclear bomb.
• 1995: In Fighting Terrorism, Netanyahu repeats Iran is 3–5 years away from nuclear capability.
• 1996: Netanyahu tells U.S. Congress Iran’s nuclear bomb is “extremely close.”
• 2002: Before a U.S. committee, Netanyahu links Iran and Iraq, saying Iran is advancing toward nuclear weapons.
• 2009: In The Atlantic, Netanyahu calls Iran a “messianic cult” nearing nuclear bomb capability.
• 2012: At the UN, Netanyahu uses a bomb diagram, claiming Iran is months from completing medium enrichment, nearing a bomb by 2013. Leaked Israeli intelligence later shows Iran wasn’t weaponizing.
• 2015: Netanyahu tells U.S. Congress the JCPOA will let Iran build a bomb in under a year.
• 2018: At the UN, Netanyahu alleges Iran has a “secret atomic warehouse” in Tehran, proving bomb intent.
• 2019: Netanyahu claims Iran is close to nuclear weapons, urging IAEA action.
• 2023: In interviews, Netanyahu warns of “horrible nuclear war” if Iran gets a bomb, claiming it’s imminent.
• February 2025: On Newsmax, Netanyahu says Iran is “days away” from bomb-grade uranium.
• June 2025: Post-strikes, Netanyahu claims Iran has uranium for nine bombs and could weaponize in “weeks or months.”

The crown jewel of Iran’s nuclear programme, the Fordow enrichment facility, is buried 80–90 metres into the side of a mountain near Qom. It’s a fortress, purpose-built to shrug off airstrikes. Israel’s arsenal, even with its shiny F-35s and bunker-busting munitions, lacks the firepower to penetrate Fordow’s depths.

The IAEA’s Rafael Grossi confirmed on 17 June 2025 that Fordow sustained “little or no visible damage” from Israel’s attacks. Without taking out Fordow, where Iran houses advanced centrifuges and a chunk of its 60% enriched uranium, Israel’s goal of crippling Iran’s nuclear capability is a pipe dream.

Jerusalem Post editorial board is calling for Iran to be partitioned and broken apart. Then talks about “Khamenei’s genocidal rhetoric” while Israel is actually committing genocide.

You still think this was ever about nuclear weapons? pic.twitter.com/bP5Btn6R0D

— Assal Rad (@AssalRad) June 18, 2025

And here’s the kicker: Israel can’t do it alone. The only weapon with a shot at Fordow is the US’s GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, a 30,000-pound beast carried exclusively by B-2 stealth bombers. But even this isn’t a sure bet, Fordow’s depth and reinforced structure pose technical challenges, and a strike risks releasing toxic chemicals like hydrofluoric acid or radiological contamination. 

Coordinating such an attack with Israel would be a logistical nightmare, fraught with classified hurdles and international blowback. A US strike could be seen as an illegal attack on Iran’s sovereignty, potentially dragging America into a wider regional war, something even Trump, with his non-interventionist base, should be wary of.

Tump leaving G7 after warning civilians to leave Teheran … why?

The major nuclear sites are in Fordow and Natanz nuclear development facilities.

He is mimicking Israeli Defence Minister Katz warning but not for any rational reason.

— Malcolm Nance (@MalcolmNance) June 16, 2025

Israel’s goal of destroying Fordow is a technical pipe dream. Buried 80–90 metres into the granite or basalt Qom mountainside, Fordow’s rocky overburden and reinforced concrete would likely defy even the U.S.’s GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, which penetrates up to 60–100 metres of earth but only 8–10 metres of reinforced concrete. The bomb’s vertical trajectory would struggle against Fordow’s fortified depth. Multiple strikes may also fail, and a ground offensive is unthinkable. Iran’s 600,000-strong army and 200,000 reservists, entrenched in rugged terrain, dwarf Israel’s 170,000 troops, making invasion a non-starter.

Israel’s strikes, however, have done more than miss military targets, they’ve hardened Iran’s resolve. By bombing non-military sites, including Iran’s state-run Press TV headquarters in Tehran on 13 June 2025, Israel has turned a strategic blunder into a propaganda gift for the Islamic Republic. The attack, which killed three journalists and disrupted broadcasts, was condemned by Iran’s Foreign Ministry as a “war crime” aimed at silencing reporting of Israel's unjustified attacks. 

Far from weakening Iran, these strikes have rallied its people against a foreign aggressor, framing Israel as a bully flouting international law. Social media posts from Iranians show surging national unity, and with Israel's defences like the Iron Dome failing, that unity could translate into a defeat for Israel that most of the world wouldn't lament. Recent developments in Gaza, whereby Israel forces are luring starving Palestinians with promises of food aid and then murdering them has ensured that Israel has entirely lost the propaganda war.

Starting a war on a false pretext, knowing you lack the tools to finish the job, is peak idiocy. Netanyahu’s strikes have killed Iranian scientists and damaged Natanz and Isfahan, but Fordow stands untouched, and Iran’s nuclear know-how is irreversible. This isn’t strategy; it’s posturing, gambling with lives to prop up Benjamin Netanyahu’s strongman image. Without US help, Israel’s campaign is a loud but impotent gesture. And even with Uncle Sam’s bombers, success is a long shot. The real cost? Escalation, civilian deaths, a region teetering on chaos and an Iran without a reason to negotiate or reign in their nuclear developments, all for a goal that was never achievable.

Treasury’s Austerity Advice Should Be Ignored

The National-led government, under Christopher Luxon’s watch, is steering New Zealand toward a grim horizon, guided by Treasury’s cold, austerity-obsessed hand. It’s a betrayal of ordinary Kiwis, workers, families, small businesses, who are being financially crushed to pad the pockets of the ultra-wealthy.

The 2025 NBR Rich List exposes the stark divide: 119 individuals, including 18 billionaires, hoard $102.1 billion, over 40% of our GDP, while Treasury’s advice slashes vital infrastructure, health, education, climate initiatives, and public services.

This isn’t fiscal discipline; it’s a rigged game funnelling taxpayer money to the elite, leaving Aotearoa’s future in tatters. Worse, these brutal cuts, totalling roughly $6.1 billion, coexist with rising government debt, raising the question: how can Luxon’s government gut services while borrowing even more?


On Monday, the NZ Herald reported:

 

Simeon Brown challenges Treasury over plans to cut health spending

Health Minister Simeon Brown has attacked Treasury officials over their analysis of his Health Delivery Plan, which said Health New Zealand Te Whatu Ora will need to double its spending-cut target in the coming year and limit health workforce pay increases to an “unprecedented” degree.

Health cuts, another Treasury-driven disaster, spell misery for the vulnerable. Treasury’s insistence that Health NZ scrape by within its 2025/26 baselines, with Budget 2025’s $1.3 billion operating allowance the leanest in a decade, will mean longer waitlists, burnt-out staff, and worse outcomes, hitting Māori, Pacific, and rural communities hardest.

The NZ Herald reports $5.3 billion in total savings, including $2.7 billion from pay equity cuts, reflecting Treasury’s fixation on a 2028/29 surplus. These cuts aren’t savings—they’re a death sentence for equity, forcing the poorest to suffer without access to private care while future costs pile up from untreated illnesses and emergency care. It’s cruel and economically shortsighted, betraying those who need the system most.

The cancellation of the iRex project, meant to replace ageing Interislander ferries with modern, rail-enabled vessels, a short-sighted decision driven by Treasury’s idiotic advice. Citing cost blowouts to $3 billion, Treasury pushed for its scrapping, leaving KiwiRail with a $500 million write-off and 60 jobs lost. Smaller likely non-rail enabled ferries will clog supply chains, spike freight costs, and hammer exporters, farmers, and consumers with higher prices. Treasury’s own documents admit this avoids immediate costs but risks billions in future fixes for the Cook Strait link, strangling regions like the South Island. It’s a gut-punch to the working Kiwis who keep our economy humming, sacrificing long-term stability for budget optics.

 

In May, RNZ reported:

Kiwirail reveals $500 million spent on axed Cook Strait ferry project

Labour Party transport spokesperson Tangi Utikere told RNZ additional costs associated with the cancellation of iReX would cost $1.16b when including the cancellation of the deal and ongoing maintenance of the current ferries.

Education has also been bled dry under the secretive Treasury’s fiscal knife. Budget 2025 saw $614 million reprioritised from “underperforming” initiatives, with total education spending set to drop from $19.85 billion in 2025/26 to $19 billion by 2026/27. The Kāhui Ako scheme, costing $118 million annually, faces disestablishment, a move Treasury championed to trim fat. These cuts, totalling $732 million, threaten teacher support, student outcomes, and equity in schools, particularly for disadvantaged communities. Starving education to meet fiscal targets undermines the next generation’s potential, leaving schools scrambling and kids short-changed.

Climate and conservation initiatives haven’t escaped the chopping block. Treasury’s push for baseline savings led to $3 million annually cut from the Department of Conservation, gutting funds like the Mātauranga Kura Taiao and Nature Heritage Fund. Budget 2024’s $35.5 million cut over four years from climate schemes, like the Climate Change Development Fund, persists into 2025, equating to roughly $8.9 million annually. Total climate and conservation cuts for 2025 hit $11.9 million, weakening our response to the climate crisis and biodiversity loss. Treasury’s penny-pinching here risks our environment and global commitments, leaving future generations to clean up the mess.

Public sector budgets have also been gutted, with Treasury’s 2024 advice to slash $1.5 billion carrying into Budget 2025’s broader $5.3 billion savings push. Beyond health’s $2.7 billion, I estimate $2 billion in additional public sector cuts, covering areas like social services and infrastructure, are tied to Treasury’s fiscal restraint. The Auckland Light Rail project, axed with $131 million cut (including $98 million in capital funding), exemplifies this approach. These cuts, totalling roughly $6.1 billion across sectors, reflect Treasury’s obsession with short-term savings, even as they erode the public services Kiwis rely on.

However, while Treasury’s advice drives these $6.1 billion in cuts, government debt is climbing. Treasury’s May 2025 Economic and Fiscal Update projects net core Crown debt at $180.8 billion (40.7% of GDP) for 2024/25, rising to $196.9 billion by 2028/29. Operating balance deficits, excluding gains and losses (OBEGAL), hit $8.7 billion in 2024/25, with surpluses not expected until 2028/29. 

Always worth posting this for me rnthe history too. Ruth and her fellow ghouls reduced the debt side of the Govt balance sheet by underinvesting in the country and liberating private credit so that we could furiously bid up the price of land and houses. pic.twitter.com/bEUtfpR0OO

— Musical Chairs (@MusicalChairs14) June 15, 2025

How can Luxon’s government justify slashing services while borrowing more? The answer lies in National’s $3.7 billion annual tax cuts that mainly benefited the wealthy and $2.9 billion landlord interest deductibility restoration, costing $13.3 billion over the forecast period. These handouts, backed by Treasury’s models, drain revenue, forcing borrowing to plug the gap. The Council of Trade Unions notes “mega-landlords” could pocket $1.3 million each, while workers face suppressed wages and higher costs. It’s a grotesque transfer of wealth to the elite, funded by debt that future Kiwis will repay.

The real scandal is the wealth hoarding. The top 10% hold over 51% of the nation’s wealth. Graeme Hart ($12.1 billion) and the Mowbray family ($20 billion) exemplify a system rigged for the few. This inequality tanks consumer spending, starves businesses, and fuels resentment, risking social unrest. Treasury’s failure to address the long-term costs, delayed infrastructure, sicker populations, underfunded schools, and a degraded environment, is negligence. Their forecasts admit tax cuts restrain revenue, delaying the surplus and strangling services. A fairer Aotearoa demands investment in public goods, not even more handouts to the Rich. Luxon must reject this elitist scam. The government must ignore Treasury's advice for even more austerity.

Chris Luxon's Numerous Comms Disasters

Christopher Luxon’s neoliberal government is lurching from one communications disaster to another, making a complete mockery of their promise to govern with transparency and competence. The PM’s incessant bleating about “turbocharging the economy” is laughably detached from reality, while Ministers such as Brooke van Velden and Tama Potaka trip over their own rhetoric, trying to ignore the damage done by their regressive policies. From Auckland to Invercargill, this government’s ineptitude is on full display.

Let’s start with Luxon, the self-anointed economic guru, banging on about his coalition’s supposed turbocharge of New Zealand’s economy. Whether he’s in Wellington or Waikato, the man’s spruiking growth like a used-car salesman flogging a lemon. Yet Business NZ’s latest stats, covering regions from Canterbury to Northland, paint a grim picture: business confidence is in the gutter, activity’s stagnating, and employers are again bracing for tougher times.

Last Friday, Business NZ reported: 

 

Back in the red

New Zealand’s manufacturing sector fell back into contraction during May, according to the latest BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI).

The seasonally adjusted PMI for May was 47.5 (a PMI reading above 50.0 indicates that manufacturing is generally expanding; below 50.0 that it is declining). This was down from 53.3 in April and a return to contraction after four consecutive months of expansion. The survey was also well below the average of 52.5 since it began.

On Monday, Business NZ also reported:

Service with a slump

New Zealand’s services sector continued to show further decline in activity during May, according to the BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI).

The PSI for May was 44.0 (A PSI reading above 50.0 indicates that the service sector is generally expanding; below 50.0 that it is declining). This was down 4.1 points from April and well below the average of 53.0 over the history of the survey.

…

BNZ’s Senior Economist Doug Steel said that “the fall in the PSI follows the sharp decline in the Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) from 53.3 to 47.5. Together, they are consistent with the economy returning to recession. We’re a long way from forecasting this, but the data are a reminder of just how vulnerable the economy currently is”.

Even babbling fools like right-wing propagandists Duncan Garner, Ryan Bridge and Mike Hosking have noticed and are starting to grumble. Luxon’s rhetoric isn’t anywhere near the reality of what people are seeing on the ground.

Luxon’s either willfully blind or genuinely out of his depth, and neither bodes well for a bloke who sold himself as New Zealand's corporate saviour. This isn’t just spin; it’s a delusion that insults every Kiwi who is currently struggling to pay the bills.

literally four days ago, he was saying the economy is booming https://t.co/xvPZIrciD2 pic.twitter.com/ZVPwSdJRuH

— Clint Smith (@ClintVSmith) June 16, 2025

Then there’s the sick leave debacle. Luxon, shooting himself in the foot, claimed that the government was looking at halving sick leave from 10 days to five, an optically terrible move given they'd just gutted Pay Equity Claims, which will disproportionately effect women's pay packets.

After some fallout, enter Workplace Relations Minister Brooke van Velden, stage left, frantically insisting there’s “no intention” to do any such thing. So, Brooke, is your boss making it up, or are you papering over a policy that’d impact low income women workers again?

Brooke van Velden's attempt to pivot to “pro-rated sick leave” for part-timers only muddies the waters further, leaving businesses equally baffled at the government’s mixed messages. This isn’t leadership; it’s a comedy sketch, and the punchline’s on us.

On Monday, 1 News reported:

No plan to halve sick leave, minister says after Luxon's comments

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon was asked during an interview with Morning Report whether his Government was looking at reducing the number of leave days from 10 to five.

"That's something that I know [Workplace Relations and Safety Minister] Brooke van Velden is looking into. She looks at a whole raft of workplace relations," Luxon replied.

"It's a bit premature for now."

But van Velden told RNZ it was not something she was looking into.

Over in housing, it's another comms mess, as Associate Housing Minister Tama Potaka peddles denialism so brazen it’d make an oil executive blush. Homelessness is surging, RNZ reporting a 58% spike in Auckland, with similar trends in Rotorua and Nelson. But the deluded Potaka claims his government’s policies aren’t to blame. Really? Slashing emergency housing access and tightening eligibility criteria for state houses have left frontline providers in Christchurch and Gisborne struggling to cope, with even domestic violence survivors being turned away from safe and secure emergency housing.

The increased number of homeless people in New Zealand isn’t easy for the public to ignore, and the government is desperate to blame anything other than their socially destructive policies.

Taking over from Chris Bishop, whose credibility is currently in the gutter after his drunken and racist outburst at the AMA, Tama Potaka is dodging responsibility by pointing to “market pressures” and lying about “rental shortages” as if National’s austerity obsession hasn’t caused the housing crises to considerably worsen. Potaka’s refusal to own this crisis is a gut-punch to the vulnerable, and will not be easily ignored by voters come election time.

 

Yesterday, RNZ reported:

Homelessness increase not necessarily due to government policy changes - minister

The minister in charge of emergency housing has been unable to say whether homelessness has increased under this government, saying frontline providers have made "a variety" of comments to him.

Providers and advocates have told RNZ they have been seeing a spike in homelessness, with some blaming changes the government has made to emergency housing access.

But Tama Potaka told a committee of MPs there were "a lot of other contributing factors," such as the state of the economy and the supply of rentals.

How is a Minister of the Crown even able to be completely ignorant of the fact that the number of rental listings is up 25% nationwide, largely due to overpricing and everybody moving to Australia?

The government has dismissed concerns that stricter emergency housing criteria has led to an increase in homelessness.

However, Auckland Council's Community Committee recorded a 53 percent rise in people sleeping rough, from 426 people last September to 653 people in January, while data from Wellington's Downtown Community Ministry showed an increase in the number of people rough sleeping from October to December 2024, by about a third in comparison to the year before.

…

As part of the gateway changes, MSD staff have been assessing whether an applicant has "unreasonably contributed" to their situation, or whether they had taken "reasonable efforts" to find other options.

Some advocates have told RNZ it has led to survivors of sexual or domestic violence being turned away from emergency housing because their decision to leave their situation was seen as "contributing" to their homelessness.

National’s emergency and state housing charade is a disgrace! Potaka crowing about new builds in Rotorua, Hamilton, and Porirua, conveniently forgetting these were funded by Labour’s budget, isn't just stupid, it's so opaque it's practically glass.

Potaka’s press releases might dupe the odd brainless punter, but anyone with a pulse knows this is Labour’s legacy, not National’s largesse, especially as homelessness climbs under their watch.

On Sunday, 1 News reported:

Nearly 200 new homes for Rotorua in affordable housing push

Nearly 200 new affordable homes will be developed in Rotorua by mid-2027 under a community-led housing initiative backed by the Government, Associate Housing Minister Tama Potaka announced.

Of the 189 homes, up to 150 would be social housing to be delivered by June 2027 by the Rotorua Lakes Council, the Ministry of Housing and Urban Development, and community housing providers.

…

The 150 social homes would be funded through $140 million allocated in Budget 2024 for 1500 new homes across the country.

Please correct your propaganda, @1NewsNZ. It’s 1,500 new social housing PLACES (paid for by @nzlabour) nationwide over four years, not 1500 new state houses. National has cancelled 1019, demolished 700 and sold 800. Another 672 are under review. #nzpolhttps://t.co/PKZXJQzpy5

— Jackal (@Jackalblog) June 15, 2025

This government’s communications strategy, if you can call a trainwreck a strategy, is a complete disaster. Luxon, van Velden, and Potaka aren’t just failing to communicate; they’re failing to govern by any stretch of the imagination. Contradictions, lies, and denial are eroding trust. Kiwis, from Kaitaia to Bluff, deserve better than this shambolic circus. Chris Luxon’s government needs to shape up, or ship out.

Israel is Lying About Iran's Nuclear Weapons Capability

Israel’s unprovoked airstrikes on Iran, justified by baseless claims of Iran’s nuclear ambitions, expose a glaring double standard in global politics. While Israel, an undeclared nuclear power, operates beyond international scrutiny, Iran faces relentless pressure, even as a signatory to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), despite no evidence of weapons-grade plutonium enrichment.

This hypocrisy, compounded by Western silence and Donald Trump’s deceptive “peace” rhetoric, sets a dangerous precedent. The following post unravel the facts behind Iran’s nuclear program, Israel’s unchecked arsenal, and the West’s complicity in a skewed system that undermines global peace.


Yesterday, RNZ reported:

Benjamin Netanyahu says Israeli attacked Iran to prevent 'nuclear holocaust'

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Fox News that he launched airstrikes against Iran to prevent "a nuclear holocaust," claiming his government had intelligence that Iran was months away from developing an initial nuclear weapon.

"We had to act," Netanyahu told Fox's Bret Baier on Sunday (local time). "It was the 12th hour, and we did act. To save ourselves but also … to protect the world from this incendiary regime."

"The intel we got and we shared with the United States was absolutely clear: That they were working in a secret plan to weaponize the uranium, they were marching very quickly, they would achieve a test device and possibly an initial device within months, and certainly less than a year," he said.

Israel’s claims that Iran was racing toward a nuke are pure fiction. The IAEA’s May 2025 report confirms Iran’s uranium enrichment was still only at 60% purity, a far cry from the 90% needed for weapons-grade material. The IAEA’s real-time sensors and rigorous sampling would catch any leap to 90%, a process requiring distinct, detectable technology. There’s zero evidence showing Iran’s crossed that line.

Meanwhile, Israel, sitting on an estimated 400 nuclear warheads (thanks to the Federation of American Scientists), operates with impunity, its Dimona reactor a black box beyond IAEA reach. Why? Because Israel’s snubbed the NPT, dodging the scrutiny Iran endures as a signatory. It’s a scandalous double standard that must end for there to be any hope of peace in the Middle East.

Iran gets hammered for every gram of uranium they have. The June 2025 IAEA censure, orchestrated by the U.S., U.K., France, and Germany, roasted Iran for “non-cooperation” over historical uranium traces and limited access. Fair call, Iran’s not playing straight, but this is no smoking gun showing Iran is working on nuclear weapons.

Compare that to Israel, whose nuclear arsenal faces no inspections, no questions, no censure. The West’s silence on this is deafening, especially after Israel’s unprovoked October 2024 airstrikes on Iran’s Taleghan 2 site, a supposed “nuclear threat” with no IAEA corroboration. Where’s the outrage? The U.S. and Europe muttered weak platitudes about “restraint,” letting Israel’s aggression slide while putting even more pressure on Iran. It’s cowardice dressed up as diplomacy.

Yesterday, RNZ also reported:

NZ 'surprised but not totally surprised' by Israeli attack on Iran, Winston Peters says

"We want peace and we want balance and calm, and the fact to be acknowledged that the problems in the Middle East don't come from one bad actor alone.

"We don't want New Zealanders in harm's way, we don't want a nuclear Iran, we don't want civilians starving or dying in military conflict and we don't want Hamas holding hostages and terrorising Palestinians, and we don't want Israel occupying Palestinian lands."

He said the current state of global affairs was probably the worst he remembered in his lifetime since the Cuban Missile Crisis.

You can only hope Winston Peters is including Donald Trump in his list of "bad actors". Trump might preach “peace” like a dodgy televangelist, but his “maximum pressure” on Iran, rebooted after the 2024 election, fuels conflict. He trashed the JCPOA in 2018, and then killed an Iranian major general, Qasem Soleimani, on 3 January 2020, by an American drone strike.

Trump then cheered Israel’s 2024 strikes while peddling his peacemaker fantasy. And now he's got his "weapons of mass destruction" moment. It’s a lie so blatant it’d make Pinocchio blush. Trump’s war-hungry posturing, pandering to MAGA and Israel’s hawks, risks dragging the Middle East and Europe into a firestorm, all while the West shrugs.

This is Donald Trump response to the Israel attack on Iran

Admitting in clear terms that Israel attacked with the full participation of America

So all those idiots who have thus far spent hours saying America was not involved need to admit they were wrong

And then STFU pic.twitter.com/CROYBFwbSB

— Stop The Bollocks with Mirabel (@MirabelTweets1) June 13, 2025

Like Donald Trump, Benjamin Netanyahu's credibility is in the gutter. Israel's Gaza campaign, with over 45,000 Palestinian deaths since October 2023, is a stain on humanity, with the International Court of Justice correctly ruling it a genocide. Yet Netanyahu, propped up by Trump’s deceit and Western apathy, dares to paint Iran as the villain? It’s obscene.

The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons is largely a farce when non-signatories like Israel can proliferate nuclear weapons without any restraint. The West’s limp response to Israel’s unprovoked attacks on Palestine and Iran and nuclear secrecy is complicity in a conflict that could escalate into WW3.