The Jackal

10 Jul 2011

Earthquakes on the Increase

There was another large earthquake off the East coast of Honshu, Japan today. It measured magnitude 7. This coincides with a general increase in the number of all magnitude earthquakes over recent years.

The trend is in part due to the increase in seismographs, which have helped seismological centres to locate many small earthquakes which were undetected in earlier decades.

Therefore, an upward trend is not unexpected in the graph. The rise in the number of large earthquakes is more significant to the assessment of the trend of increasing tectonic activity.
Source Data: Report produced by R Webb Ó 2008

DATES FROM - TO      PERIOD            NO. EARTHQUAKES (Mag +6.99) 
1863 to 1900 incl            38 yrs               12
1901 to 1938 incl            38 yrs               53
1939 to 1976 incl            38 yrs               71
1977 to 2011 incl            34 yrs              164

By limiting the range of earthquakes being counted to magnitude 7 or above, it means these earthquakes can easily be identified by a limited number of seismographs, ensuring that any increase in frequency for larger earthquakes cannot be down to the increase in overall detection rates, as all these larger earthquakes are able to be easily detected with fewer seismograph stations.

References
  1. The number and energy intensity of earthquakes in any given period are based upon records from USGS and other sources, including those recorded at http://earthquake.usgs.gov/
  2. Earthquake details used here may also be available at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes
  3. Graph plot for "all magnitude" earthquakes reproduced from DL Research paper http://www.dlindquist.com/

The week that was 3 - 10 July

On Tuesday the United Nations announced in its annual survey of economic and social trends, that World food production will have to increase by up to 100% by the year 2050.

It also advocated for a focus on greener sustainable production methods to meet the requirements of an expected 9 billion people.

The UN’s annual World Economic and Social Survey (PDF) called for governments to invest nearly $2 trillion per year to help small-scale farming and to reduce environmental harm.
"A fundamental technological overhaul will be required. Technologies will need to undergo drastic changes so as to become more efficient in the use of energy and other resources and minimize the generation of harmful pollutants.

At present, 90 percent of energy is generated through brown technologies that utilize fossil fuels, with this type of production being responsible for about 60 per cent of carbon dioxide (CO2) emis- sions.

According to the more cautious scenario, for CO2 equivalent concentrations to be stabilized at 450 parts per million (consistent with the target of stabilizing global warming at a 2o C temperature increase from pre-industrial levels), the use of fossil fuels would need to drop by 80 per cent by mid-century," the report said.
The United Nations also said that 925 million people are currently undernourished throughout the world. Two-thirds are concentrated in seven countries: Bangladesh, China, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia and Pakistan.


The NZ Medical Association is calling for a reduction in social inequity, largely inspired by a worldwide review undertaken by the England based Whitehall Studies group.

The Principal Investigator Michael Marmott has headed the research group looking into worldwide health inequalities for the past 30 years. They are investigating explanations for the striking inverse social gradient in morbidity and mortality.

New Zealand has a higher than normal rate of hospitalisations for children with diseases of poverty such as skin infections and lung diseases. Rheumatic fever, a severe throat infection which damages the heart, is 23 times more likely for Maori, and 49 times more likely for Pacific people, than for Europeans.
"I was struck by the high number of people who were affected by a whole range of diseases including the more predictable obesity, diabetes, and heart disease, but also asthma, thyroid disease, rheumatoid arthritis, gout, developmental delay, skin infections, drug addictions and congenital disease," Dr Don Simmers, who heads the association's health equity subcommittee said.
The Medical Association advocates a wide-ranging package to tackle inequality including banning cigarette sales, exempting healthy food from GST, and fixing welfare levels and the minimum wage in line with a "minimum income for healthy living".


NZ Art Guild Project 2010
The New Zealand Art Guild has collaborated 56 artworks into one giant piece for charity to be unveiled at the Mairangi Art Centre in Auckland on July 26.

The major work entitled Light of My Life, will raise funds for KidsCan, a national charitable trust supporting disadvantaged Kiwi kids.

The artwork will be auctioned on Trademe from July 27 with 100% of the proceeds donated to KidsCan.

The New Zealand Art Guild undertook a similar fundraising event last year by selling a painting of 90 separate panels, which was a collaboration of 88 individual New Zealand artists from throughout the country. The artwork was entitled Reach Out, and raised a total of $2000 for the Mental Health Foundation of NZ.

All 56 individual artworks that make up Light of My Life, will be combined to create a piece measuring 1.3 by 1.15 metres. The exact image of the collaborative artwork will be kept secret, even from those participating in it, until unveiling night. 100 limited edition prints of the artwork will also be available with a percentage of the proceeds going to KidsCan.

"We appreciate the support and generosity we have received from our guild members over the past six years with these annual collaborative charity fundraisers. KidsCan rely heavily on donations to do their amazing work and our members are thrilled to get behind such a worthwhile charity," New Zealand Art Guild executive director Sophia Elise said.



Following Governor Andrew Cuomo’s decision to allow the process of hydraulic fracturing across 85 percent of New York’s Marcellus Shale, a coalition of 47 consumer, faith, food, environmental and multi-issue advocacy organizations called for a statewide ban on fracking on Thursday.

Last week, the New York Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) released its recommendations on fracking, allowing the practice in most areas of the state outside of the New York City and Syracuse watersheds. The DEC’s plan, which informed Governor Cuomo’s decision, leaves many New Yorkers without equal protection from the environmental and public health risks associated with fracking, and still exposes New York City and Syracuse residents to many impacts of shale gas drilling, including toxic air emissions.

A recent investigative series by The New York Times found that the natural gas industry has exaggerated the economic benefits of fracking, while downplaying its risks to public health and the environment.
“It’s wrong and unfair for the Cuomo administration to lift the ban on fracking, as it is a technology that has proven to destroy land, water, public health and economic growth. It is especially despicable to provide an exception for the Syracuse and New York City watersheds, while opening up the rest of the state to hazardous drilling. If it’s too dangerous for these urban areas, then it is too dangerous for all of New York. People across the state deserve equal protection. Governor Cuomo, don’t frack New York!” said Lois Marie Gibbs, executive director of the Center for Health, Environment & Justice.
The coalition opposing fracking includes several national and state organizations including Food & Water Watch, Frack Action, Democracy for America, Friends of the Earth, Credo Action, Center for Heath Environment and Justice, Catskill Mountainkeeper and Citizen Action New York.

To date, more than 60 municipalities in the United States have passed measures against fracking.

The Human Rights Watch reported yesterday that Yemeni forces may have recently killed dozens more civilians in unlawful attacks while fighting an Islamist armed group in southern Abyan province. The conflict has continued since May 2011.

The army's 25th Mechanized Brigade has been launching artillery and other strikes on Zinjibar and surrounding areas from its base on the outskirts of Zinjibar, assisted by the air force and navy.
"As Yemeni government forces battle armed militants in Abyan, civilians are paying the price. Both sides need to be doing much more to protect civilians from harm, and the government should be investigating possible laws-of-war violations by its forces in Abyan," said Joe Stork, deputy Middle East director at Human Rights Watch.
The Yemeni army and other state security forces have clashed with the Ansar al-Sharia forces for more than three months in Abyan. The militants, who authorities claim are linked to al-Qaeda, overran the town of Jaar on March 27 and seized Abyan's nearby provincial capital city, Zinjibar, on May 29.

Since February, pro-democracy protesters have frequently protested across the country, calling to end President Ali Abdullah Saleh's 33-year rule.

Yesterday, Cities across Egypt saw the largest demonstrations since the revolutionary struggles that forced the resignation of US-backed dictator Hosni Mubarak on February 11.

Protests, including indefinite sit-ins in public squares like those that forced Mubarak from power, showed the rising opposition to the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) military junta that replaced Mubarak.

Among those joining the protests were striking workers from several critical industrial facilities in Egypt, including the Suez Canal and the Mahalla textile plants.

A key cause of public anger is the SCAF’s defense of Mubarak regime officials, and police who imprisoned or killed protesters. In contrast, the SCAF has passed a law banning strikes and protests that hurt the economy, trying and convicting an estimated 7,000 to 10,000 civilians in military tribunals.

9 Jul 2011

Hero of the Week Award - The Dominion Post

Today, the Act Party ran a racist and divisive advertisement in the New Zealand Herald. The advertisement is headed Fed up with pandering to Maori radicals? Act's assumptions are completely ludicrous to anybody with half a brain.

Let's get something clear, Act does not want to help Maori, they want to further repress Te Reo Maori and limit the ability of school's to teach an official language of New Zealand.

Act are a bunch of horrendous hypocrites that believe in female subservience, repression based on race and economic position as well as eugenics for solo DPB mothers. They often advocate for more destructive policies to be implemented against the poor and a continuance of the war on beneficiaries that the National party announced earlier this year. Act is an embarrassment for New Zealand.

Scott over at Imperator Fish has photo-shopped a great piss take of Act's advertisement:
Click to enlarge
Act's advertisement today goes to show that the New Zealand Herald really does lean towards the right wing in its focus by publishing such propaganda.

Not only does the disgusting advertisement show a complete disregard for the internationally recognized Treaty of Waitangi, it provides justification for racist ideals that contribute to the repression of our indigenous people.

Such disgraceful advertisements grant acceptance to peoples negative attitudes and prejudices, which adds to New Zealand’s dysfunction. As bad as the advertisement was though, it pales in comparison to what John Ansell posted on Kiwibog and Don Brash wrote on Act's website today:

“Whether it’s the continued existence of the Maori seats when National promised to abolish them, unelected Maori boards at local government level, special status for Maori  under the RMA, the proposed control by Maori over flora and fauna, the intention to make it compulsory for teachers to learn Te Reo, or any form of preferential treatment for Maori, it’s time this insidious cancer was diagnosed for what it is – a type of apartheid – and excised," Dr Don said.

Is it just me, or is old Don Brash looking a bit desperate and senile? Act seems to be making a fuss just to get some attention, believing that this will somehow translate into votes. With such low poll results and no Woman willing to give the sexist party their support, it's likely that Act will be gone before lunchtime after the next election.

It's my belief that Act undertakes their extreme policies to make National seem reasonable in comparison. In this way they hope to get National back in power so that they can sell our SOE's. Act MP's like Roger Douglas have been salivating over the proposition to con Kiwi's out of billions of dollars.

Today's racist advert in the New Zealand Herald was authorised by Garry Mallett. He joined the ACT party in 1995, and is infamous for making a vomiting gesture in 2005 during a discussion about homosexuality.



It's not the first time Mallett's taken a few cheap shots at Maori. In 2009 a complaint was made by the Waikato Anti-Racism Coalition concerning an Act advertisement in the Hamilton This Week, which campaigned against Māori seats being established on the Auckland 'Supercity' Council. The advertisement contained the paragraph:
“Maori candidates promoting racist policies make themselves unattractive to the wider electorate and make their electoral failure a self-fulfilling prophecy.”  
Basic Principle 2 of the code says:
Advertisements should not portray people in a manner which is reasonably likely to cause serious or widespread hostility, contempt, abuse or ridicule.
The complainant wrote:
That the advertisement's portrayal of those attempting to improve representation in local government, and in particular on Auckland Super City, as the work of "scuzzy little racists" is offensive to the paper's Maori and Pakeha audience.

That for the same reason, and in addition the portrayal of attempts to improve Maori representation, as "attempts to infect our legal/electoral systems with racial prejudice", and the comparison of Chris Laidlaw's comments with Goebel's Nazi Germany propaganda, the advertisement also breaches the code regarding the denigration of such people.
The Hamilton This Week, wrote:
My colleagues here at Hamilton This Week, pride themselves on looking after their customers and readers. Therefore it is of a concern to me that you have received a complaint. Therefore, I have reminded my staff, that in the future, it would be advisable, to forward articles to the ASA, to gain your professional opinion and advice, prior to publication.
Garry Mallett submitted:
Now, I can't speak for the ASA, but I DELIGHT in pouring scorn, ridicule, derision, approbation on racist policies and those who promote them - "scuzzy little racists" is a totally appropriate term for the vile and despicable policies these people are promoting.
Surprisingly as many as four people "like" the white supremacist's FB page.
The majority of the Advertising Standards Authority Complaints Board was of the view that the advertisement did not reach the threshold to breach the codes provisions. A minority of the Advertising Standards board disagreed and believed the advertisement clearly identified a sector of society in a manner which was likely to cause serious and widespread offence.

The ASA must have a pretty high threshold to allow such divisive racism to be published in New Zealand. In my opinion the Complaints Board failed to adhere to the code (PDF) when they ruled to not uphold the complaint.

The Dominion Post have clearly learned from the previous complaint in deciding not to publish Act's propaganda. Today's advert contains similar racist sentiments and anybody who chooses to publish such rubbish, puts their credibility at risk. So well done Dominion Post, you're officially a Hero of the Week Award recipient.

8 Jul 2011

Friday Fun with Photos #8

"Bureaucrats throw ze weight around and zumetimes refuze to grant ze consentz on flimsy excuses. Ze RMA rules that require consultation with ze Maori, must be eradicated. Zat iz why we must have ze first past ze post system, or ve will become overrun with ze underclasses, who ve are paying to breed." said Don Brash at a recent vote for change rally.

Click image to enlarge.

A New Rainbow Warrior

The new Rainbow Warrior ship was floated last Monday. It's the first time that Greenpeace has a purpose built ship which is environmental in design, set for sailing and perfect for the purpose of spreading the message of sustainability and peace to the world.

It will be just a few short months until the ship is fully ready, and when it will receive a much more ceremonious launch in Hamburg. The 58 metre long vessel, weighing 680 tonnes already sports the logo of a white dove and rainbow on each side of its green hull.
"It is something very special working for Greenpeace," said the ship's chief designer Uwe Lampe, admitting to getting "a few migraines" trying to give Greenpeace the ship of their dreams.
"The whole concept of the boat was, how should I say, very complex. It's like a small town, with its own electricity generator, air conditioning, waste water treatment and laboratory," he said.
Costing an estimated 23 million euros ($33.4 million), 10-15 percent of Greenpeace's total annual budget, this is the first time that Greenpeace is having a Rainbow Warrior built from scratch to its own specifications. The radio room will be able to withstand for at least 30 minutes attempt by special forces to break in.

Greenpeace's spokesman Mike Townsley spoke ahead of the vessel being floated:
"The Rainbow Warrior III is much more than a flagship," he said prior to its official launch for Greenpeace's 40th birthday in October. "It is very modern and very ecological ... It is the practical application of our values," he said.
This is excellent news. With more organized opposition to unsustainable ecologically damaging practices and political pressure hopefully resulting in a change in direction for humanity.

Time for an Early Warning System

Yesterday, it took GeoNet over two hours before they even registered a 7.6 Magnitude earthquake on their website.

The powerful earthquake hit off the Kermadec Islands at 7.03am NZT at a depth of 48.5km.

Some paid services duly gave the appropriate warning, but GeoNet states on their website:
It can take between fifteen and thirty minutes after a significant earthquake for the location and magnitude to be reviewed and the event to be listed on this web site.
Even fifteen minutes is far too long to wait to have relevant information that could save lives, but over two hours is a travesty! I can't link to Geonet's webpage of the 7.6 Kermadec earthquake because it's currently down. Geonet also says:
Locating an earthquake involves a lot of data and while many of the processes are automated, the final review and location still involves a person having to review the data and location before it becomes available via the website and on social media.
GeoNets lack of warning for the 7.6 M Kermadec quake and possible tsunami could have put thousand's of lives in danger. Considering that the Kermadecs lie only 800km north of New Zealand and that many of this countries communities are coastal, even a medium sized tsunami could have devastating effects.

A tsunami early-warning system is conceivable for the South Island alpine fault and the Kermadec trench fault. The quake recurrence rate for the alpine fault is about once every 300 years, with the most recent event in 1717, which means a large earthquake of up to magnitude 8 is possible this century.

Japan had a televised warning when the huge magnitude 9 earthquake struck in March, with some areas having as much as 20 minutes to move to higher ground and safety before the tsunami struck.

The Japanese National Police Agency has confirmed 15,538 deaths, 5,685 injured and 7,060 people missing across eighteen prefectures, as well as over 125,000 buildings damaged or destroyed.

The overall cost could exceed US$300 billion, making it the most expensive natural disaster on record.

In July, the inventor of the Japanese early warning system that would have saved thousands of lives, Dr Shigeki Horiuchi, visited New Zealand to promote an early warning system for quakes. He's a leading Japanese seismologist and chief executive of the Home Seismometer Corporation. 
“About one minute before the earthquake hits it issues a warning. A warning is sent via mass media before the quake is due to strike, allowing the public to take cover and the bullet trains to slow. The further away the earthquake is, the better the warning," he said.
It was reported that local scientists have strong reservations about the system. They did not elaborate on these reservations, but I surmise that it's the cost to implement a warning system that is the main inhibitor.



GNS Science tectonic geologist Dr Rupert Sutherland, says an early-warning system is conceivable. University of Otago geologist Professor Richard Norris, a member of the university's borehole project team, also said recently that a system using high-sensitivity equipment, high-speed computers and radio or satellite communications could pinpoint a quake in seconds.

Following the Japanese devastating 9 magnitude earthquake, many countries have moved to establish early warning systems. So why can't New Zealand do the same? The technology is available and relatively cost effective. In terms of how many lives it could save, it would be foolish not to implement an early warning system as soon as possible.